Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone. An Empirical Test

Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji ()

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: We test the hypothesis that the government bond markets in the Eurozone are more fragile and more susceptible to self-fulfilling liquidity crises than in stand-alone countries. We find evidence that a significant part of the surge in the spreads of the PIGS countries in the Eurozone during 2010-11 was disconnected from underlying increases in the debt to GDP ratios and fiscal space ariables, and was the result of negative self-fulfilling market sentiments that became very strong since the end of 2010. We argue that this can drive member countries of the Eurozone into bad equilibria.We also find evidence that after years of neglecting highgovernment debt, investors became increasingly worried about this in the Eurozone, and reacted by raising the spreads. No such worries developed in stand-alone countries despite the fact that debt to GDP ratios and fiscal space variables were equally high and increasing in these countries.

Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2012-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (44)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test (2013)
Working Paper: Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: an empirical test (2013)
Working Paper: Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone. An Empirical Test (2012)
Working Paper: Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-37

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