International Effects of China’s Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives

Rodney Tyers

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Opinion over the global implications of China‘s rise is divided between critics, who see it as having developed at the expense of both investment and employment in the US, Europe and Japan and proponents who emphasise improvements in the terms of trade and reductions to the cost of financing that stem from China‘s supply of light manufactures, its demand for Western capital and luxury goods and its high saving. The criticism implies Keynesian assumptions while proponents take a neoclassical perspective. In this paper, both are embodied in a global macro model that emphasises bilateral linkages via both trade and investment, with monetary spill-overs represented by globally integrated bond markets. Net gains are suggested for the US and Europe from China‘s successful export-oriented growth, though there are partially offsetting Keynesian effects. China‘s recent slower, more consumption focussed, growth appears also to be beneficial in those regions and in Japan notwithstanding terms of trade losses.

Keywords: China; imbalances; saving; monetary policy; spill-overs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F42 F43 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2014-01
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https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/fil ... -01/5_2014_tyers.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives (2015)
Working Paper: International Effects of China’s Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives (2014)
Working Paper: International Effects of China's Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-05

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