World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity

Francesco Ravazzolo and Joaquin Vespignani

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian’s rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP and oil prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of the three indices produces statistically significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, oil, natural gas, gold and fertilizer prices, relative to an autoregressive benchmark.

Keywords: Global real economic activity; World steel production; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C5 C8 E1 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2017-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity (2020)
Working Paper: World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-42

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