Revisiting the growth effects of fiscal policy: A Bayesian model averaging approach

Kerim Arin, Elias Braunfels and Gernot Doppelhofer

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Motivated by the mixed evidence in previous literature, we reexamine the effects of various types of government spending and taxes, as well as overall budget surplus/deficit, on economic growth. To address the model uncertainty issue that may have plagued earlier studies we employ a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. We use a panel data set for OECD countries for the 1990-2013 period, control for country and time specific effects, and allow for a wide range of other potential growth determinants. The results suggest a robust link between only some fiscal variables and economic growth. On the spending side, productive public spending has a robust positive effect on growth. On the revenue side, we document a robust negative effect for the top corporate tax rate, but, maybe surprisingly, not for any income tax variable. Finally, our results suggest that a budget surplus has a robust positive effect on economic performance. We also analyze the timing of effects and conclude that most effects occur with a lag of two years.

Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Public Spending; Taxes; Economic Growth. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 H20 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2017-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pbe
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Revisiting the growth effects of fiscal policy: A Bayesian model averaging approach (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-68

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