Dollar Funding and Housing Markets: The Role of Non-US Global Banks

Torsten Ehlers, Mathias Hoffmann and Alexander Raabe

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Non-US global banks are an important driver of the international synchronization of house price growth. A loosening (tightening) of US dollar funding conditions leads non-US global banks to expand (contract) their international lending, which is largely denominated in US dollars. This induces a synchronization of lending across borrowing countries, which translates into an international synchronization of house price growth. Borrowing country pairs whose joint exposure to US dollar funding conditions via their non-US creditor banks (dollar co-dependence) is higher, exhibit a higher synchronization of house price growth. Our results identify a novel international spillover channel of US dollar funding conditions, which is not related to common-lender exposures. We show theoretically and empirically that the exposure of non-US global banks to dollar funding conditions is captured by the bilateral treasury basis between the currency of the non-US global creditor banks' headquarters and the US dollar. As these conditions vary over time, borrowing country pairs whose non-US global creditor banks are more exposed to US dollar funding variations exhibit higher house price synchronization.

Keywords: house prices; synchronization; US dollar funding; global US dollar cycle; US treasury basis; convenience yield; global imbalances; capital flows; global banking network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F34 F36 G15 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 53 pages
Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk, nep-ifn and nep-opm
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-56

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