Reversal of fortune for political incumbents after oil shocks

Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, Ha Nguyen and Ivan Yotzov

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: This paper explores the effect of oil shocks on electoral outcomes. Using a new polling and election dataset for 207 elections across 50 democracies, we show that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents. We verify that these shocks-which reduce consumption growth-are associated with worsening performance for incumbents in the run-up to reelection and a reversal in the leaning of the political party in power post-election.

Keywords: elections; incumbent; oil prices; economic shocks; consumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 E21 P16 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2020-06-22
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http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/118898/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents after Oil Shocks (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:118898

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