Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents after Oil Shocks

Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, Ha Nguyen and Ivan Yotzov

No 9287, Policy Research Working Paper Series from The World Bank

Abstract: This paper explores the effect of oil shocks on electoral outcomes. Using a new polling and election data set for 207 elections across 50 democracies, the paper shows that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents. The analysis verifies that these shocks -- which reduce consumption growth -- are associated with worsening performance for incumbents in the runup to reelection and a reversal in the leaning of the political party in power post-election.

Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules; Natural Disasters; Primary Metals; Employment and Unemployment; Inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-06-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-pol
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http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/95555159 ... after-Oil-Shocks.pdf (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: Reversal of fortune for political incumbents after oil shocks (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9287

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