Testable implications of forecast optimality

Andrew Patton and Allan Timmermann

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted on the assumption of mean squared error loss under which forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially uncorrelated at the single period horizon with increasing variance as the forecast horizon grows. This paper considers properties of optimal forecasts under general loss functions and establishes new testable implications of forecast optimality. These hold when the forecaster’s loss function is unknown but testable restrictions can be imposed on the data generating process, trading off conditions on the data generating process against conditions on the loss function. Finally, we propose flexible parametric estimation of the forecaster’s loss function, and obtain a test of forecast optimality via a test of over-identifying restrictions.

Keywords: forecast evaluation; loss function; rationality tests. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2005-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/6834/ Open access version. (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Testable Implications of Forecast Optimality (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ehl:lserod:6834

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