Compilation of Social Accounts Matrix and estimation of general multiplier for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic

Vilayat Valiyev, Malik Mehdiyev, Saylau Bayzakov, Gulbara Sarsembaeva, Elvira Nagoibaeva and Natalya Zakharova

No 6112, EcoMod2013 from EcoMod

Abstract: Economic development, structure of economy, natural and labour resources, infrastructure and transport-transit opportunities of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic that have been independent for 20 years since collapse of the Soviet Union are quite diverse. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have large scale of oil and gas reserves: as of January 1, 2012, proven oil reserves of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan comprise 7.0 and 30.0 billion barrels respectively making 2.2 percent of the world oil reserves combined, while 1.3 ad 1.9 trillion cubic meters respectively making 1.5 percent of world gas reserves combined. In 2011, oil and gas production was 45.6 millio tons and 14.8 billion cubic meters respectively, while in Kazakhstan it comprised 82.4 million tons and 19.3 billion cubic meters respectively (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012). Kyrgyz Republic has limited gold and substatial water resources, which cannot be exploited sufficiently due to lack of investmets in near-term perspective. Azerbajan and Kazakhstan, on the other hand get to receive windfall amount from sale of oil and gas resources, which have various implications on economic development. Hence, given the mentioned peculiarities of these countries it is important to carry out estimations and forecasts. In this article, separate SAMs have been constructed for Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic accounting for mentioned differences and input-output linkages, and on that basis, general multiplier was estimated, which will enable carrying out estimations that could be helpful in posing various issueson economic development, including trade arrangements depending on country circumstances, making short-, medium-, and long-term projections, carrying out simulations on working out strategic plans as well as formulating and making various policies, and assist in establishing and developing CGE model. see above See above

Keywords: Azerbaijan; Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic; Forecasting; nowcasting; Forecasting; nowcasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-06-21
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