EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Scenario-Based Forecast for Post-Conflict’s Growth in Syria

Mouyad Alsamara (), Zouhair Mrabet and Ahmad Ebid
Additional contact information
Zouhair Mrabet: Qatar University
Ahmad Ebid: UN ESCWA

No 1385, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between the main macroeconomic indicators, namely real GDP, consumer prices and parallel market exchange rate in the Syrian economy during the period 1990-2017. We provide a comprehensive analysis for the macroeconomic policies and performance in the pre-conflict and during the conflict periods. For this purpose, we employ two advanced estimation approaches, namely, nonlinear ARDL and Structural VAR. these techniques are very useful to estimate how real GDP has reacted to shocks stemming from three major macroeconomic variables namely, money supply, consumer prices, and parallel exchange rate market. The empirical results indicate that the responses of real GDP to negative shocks in money supply are greater than its responses to positive shocks in money supply during the conflict period. Moreover, we distinguish four different scenario for money supply as possible views of rebuilding scenarios. The achievement of this scenario depends on the political settlement agreement and the size of capital inflow into the economy.

Pages: 40
Date: 2020-04-20, Revised 2020-04-20
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-for, nep-isf and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Downloads: (external link)
https://erf.org.eg/publications/scenario-based-for ... cts-growth-in-syria/ (application/pdf)
https://bit.ly/3kepmHZ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:erg:wpaper:1385

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Economic Research Forum Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sherine Ghoneim ().

 
Page updated 2023-02-01
Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1385