The Uncertainty about the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change

Richard Tol

No WP382, Papers from Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)

Abstract: This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3 C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3 C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7 C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.

Keywords: Climate; change/uncertainty/impacts/Social; cost; of; carbon/cost (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp382

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