On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change

Richard Tol

Environmental & Resource Economics, 2012, vol. 53, issue 1, 97-116

Abstract: This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3°C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3°C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7°C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year. Copyright The Author(s) 2012

Keywords: Climate change; Economic impact; Meta-analysis; Social cost of carbon; Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Working Paper: The Uncertainty about the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change (2011)
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DOI: 10.1007/s10640-012-9549-3

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