Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit

Hylke Vandenbussche, William Connell Garcia and Wouter Simons

No 635886, Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven from KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven

Abstract: We develop a network trade model with country-sector level input-output linkages with the objective of evaluating trade shocks. This framework includes (1) domestic and global value chain linkages between all country-sectors, (2) trade flows via domestic and foreign sectors to a final destination, (3) value added rather than gross trade flows. The model is applied to the sectoral World Input Output Database (WIOD) to predict the impact of Brexit for every individual EU country by aggregating up the country-sector effects. In contrast to other studies, we find EU-27 job losses to be substantially higher than hitherto believed as a result of the closely integrated EU network structure. Upstream country-sectors stand to lose more from Brexit due to their network centrality.

Pages: 54
Date: 2019-03-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-net
Note: paper number DPS 19.04
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Published in FEB Research Report Department of Economics

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https://lirias.kuleuven.be/retrieve/535608 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit (2022)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit (2020)
Working Paper: Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks and Jobs: An Application to Brexit (2019)
Working Paper: Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks and Jobs: An Application to Brexit (2019)
Working Paper: Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks And Jobs: An Application to Brexit (2017)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit (2017)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit (2017)
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