Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks and Jobs: An Application to Brexit

Hylke Vandenbussche, William Connell and Wouter Simons

No 7473, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: We develop a network trade model with country-sector level input-output linkages. It includes (1) domestic and global value chain linkages between all country-sectors, (2) direct as well as indirect shipments (via other sectors and countries) to a final destination, (3) value added rather than gross trade flows. The model is solved analytically and we use the sectoral World Input Output Database (WIOD) to predict the impact of Brexit for every individual EU country by aggregating up the country-sector effects. In contrast to other studies, we find EU-27 job losses to be substantially higher than hitherto believed as a result of the closely integrated EU network structure. Upstream country-sectors stand to lose more from Brexit due to their network centrality in Europe.

JEL-codes: C53 D57 F14 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit (2022)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit (2020)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit (2019)
Working Paper: Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks and Jobs: An Application to Brexit (2019)
Working Paper: Global Value Chains, Trade Shocks And Jobs: An Application to Brexit (2017)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit (2017)
Working Paper: Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: an application to Brexit (2017)
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