Trade liberalization and child mortality: a synthetic control method

Alessandro Olper, Daniele Curzi and Johan Swinnen

No 567787, Working Papers of LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance from KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance

Abstract: We study the causal effect of trade liberalization on child mortality by exploiting 41 policy reform experiments in the 1960-2010 period. The Synthetic Control Method for comparative case studies allows to compare at the country level the trajectory of post-reform health outcomes of treated countries (those which experienced trade liberalization) with the trajectory of a combination of similar but untreated countries. In contrast with previous findings, we find that the effect of trade liberalization on health outcomes displays a huge heterogeneity, both in the direction and the magnitude of the estimated effect. Among the 41 investigated cases, 19 displayed a significant reduction in child mortality after trade liberalization. In 19 cases there was no significant effect, while in three cases we found a significant worsening in child mortality after trade liberalization. Trade reforms in democracies, in middle income countries and which reduced taxation in agriculture reduce child mortality more.

Keywords: Trade liberalization; Child Mortality; Synthetic Control Method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-01
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Published in LICOS - Discussion paper series 387/2017 , pages 1-52

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Related works:
Journal Article: Trade liberalization and child mortality: A Synthetic Control Method (2018)
Working Paper: Trade liberalization and child mortality: a synthetic control method (2017)
Working Paper: Trade Liberalization and Child Mortality: A Synthetic Control Method (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ete:licosp:567787

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