Structural Vector Autoregressions with Markov Switching: Combining Conventional with Statistical Identification of Shocks

Helmut Herwartz and Helmut Luetkepohl
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Helmut Lütkepohl

No ECO2011/11, Economics Working Papers from European University Institute

Abstract: In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis a Markov regime switching (MS) property can be exploited to identify shocks if the reduced form error covariance matrix varies across regimes. Unfortunately, these shocks may not have a meaningful structural economic interpretation. It is discussed how statistical and conventional identifying information can be combined. The discussion is based on a VAR model for the US containing oil prices, output, consumer prices and a short-term interest rate. The system has been used for studying the causes of the early millennium economic slowdown based on traditional identi¯cation with zero and long-run restrictions and using sign restrictions. We find that previously drawn conclusions are questionable in our framework.

Keywords: Vector autoregressive model; Markov process; EM algorithm; impulse responses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Journal Article: Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks (2014)
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