Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation

Pia Orrenius, Grace Ozor, Madeline Zavodny and Xiaoqing Zhou

Dallas Fed Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth. Estimates based on historical data and a structural vector autoregression model suggest gross domestic product growth in 2025 is 0.75 to 1 percentage points lower than in a benchmark simulation using the Congressional Budget Office’s immigration projections through November 2024.

Keywords: immigration; economic growth; economy; U.S. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-07-08
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