Details about Xiaoqing Zhou

Access statistics for papers by Xiaoqing Zhou.

Last updated 2026-05-12. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pzh744

Working Papers

2026

1. Break-even employment declines as unauthorized immigration outflows continue
   Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2. Implications of the Iran war for U.S. inflation
   Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
3. Investing in the Shadows: FinTech Growth and Mortgage Market Dynamics
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
4. New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations
   Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5. Subcontracting in Federal Spending: Micro and Macro Implications
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2026)
6. The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
7. The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
8. The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2025)
   See also Chapter The Postpandemic US Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2026) (2026)

2025

9. Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
   Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
10. Middle East geopolitical risk modestly affects inflation and inflation expectations
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

2024

11. Lower interest rates don’t necessarily improve housing affordability
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
12. Strength in consumer spending does not necessarily imply low probability of recession
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
13. U.S. 30-Year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

2023

14. A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (24)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2022) View citations (2)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2022)
    See also Journal Article A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks, Energy Economics, Elsevier (2023) View citations (24) (2023)
15. Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    See also Journal Article Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press (2025) View citations (1) (2025)
16. Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research
17. Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (7)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2023) View citations (4)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2023) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand, Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier (2024) View citations (19) (2024)
18. Oil Price Shocks and Inflation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2023) View citations (3)

2022

19. Existing Low-Rate Mortgages Blunt Impact of Recent Rate Surge
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
20. How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    Also in Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2020) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2025) (2025)
21. Inflation in Services Likely to Rise Further Despite Slowing Goods Prices
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
22. Rent Inflation Expected to Accelerate Then Moderate in Mid-2023
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
23. U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

2021

24. Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2021) View citations (3)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2021) View citations (3)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2021) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2023) View citations (1) (2023)
25. Limited Impact of Rising Energy Prices on U.S. Inflation, Inflation Expectations in 2020–23
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
26. Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    See also Journal Article Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2022) View citations (2) (2022)
27. Online Appendix to "Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment"
    Online Appendices, Review of Economic Dynamics
    See also Journal Article Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2022) View citations (2) (2022)
28. Surging House Prices Expected to Propel Rent Increases, Push Up Inflation
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
29. The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (2)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2021) View citations (7)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2021) View citations (9)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2021)
    See also Journal Article The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23, Energy Economics, Elsevier (2022) View citations (80) (2022)
30. Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity During the COVID-19 Pandemic
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (7)

2020

31. A New View of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
32. A Quantitative Evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund Program in China
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article A quantitative evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund program in China, China Economic Review, Elsevier (2020) View citations (10) (2020)
33. A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2020) View citations (3)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (2)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2020) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf, The Energy Journal (2023) View citations (1) (2023)
34. CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
35. Does drawing down the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve help stabilize oil prices?
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (15)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2019) View citations (7)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2019) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2020) View citations (27) (2020)
36. Gasoline Demand More Responsive to Price Changes than Economists Once Thought
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
37. How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy
    Dallas Fed Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
38. Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (9)
    Also in CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2020) View citations (8)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (8)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2020) View citations (8)
39. Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) View citations (4)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2019) View citations (44)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2019) View citations (46)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2019) View citations (21)
    2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019) View citations (46)
    See also Journal Article Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2022) View citations (26) (2022)
40. The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (23)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2020) View citations (36)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2020) View citations (36)
    See also Chapter The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models, Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited (2023) View citations (17) (2023)

2019

41. Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas View citations (29)
    See also Journal Article Refining the workhorse oil market model, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2020) View citations (53) (2020)
42. The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2018) View citations (8)
    CFS Working Paper Series, Center for Financial Studies (CFS) (2018) View citations (7)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2018) View citations (8)
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2018) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2022) View citations (15) (2022)

2018

43. Home Equity Extraction and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (3)
    Also in 2018 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2018) View citations (1)
44. Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (13)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2017) View citations (20)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2017) View citations (25)
    See also Journal Article Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2018) View citations (196) (2018)
45. Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks: Comment
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (7)
46. Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Information: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand S
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research View citations (10)

2017

47. Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (4)
    Also in Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2017) View citations (4)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (2017) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?, The Energy Journal (2018) View citations (10) (2018)

2013

48. Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis
    CEPR Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research View citations (31)
    Also in Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada (2013) View citations (25)

Journal Articles

2026

1. Unauthorized Immigration Effects on Local Labor Markets
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2026, 2026, (05), 5

2025

2. Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks
   Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, 2025, 3, (1), 122 - 164 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks, Working Papers (2023) (2023)
3. How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2025, 57, (5), 1167-1210
   See also Working Paper How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers, Working Papers (2022) (2022)

2024

4. Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand
   Journal of Public Economics, 2024, 232, (C) View citations (19)
   See also Working Paper Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand, CESifo Working Paper Series (2023) View citations (7) (2023)

2023

5. A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf
   The Energy Journal, 2023, 44, (5), 95-114 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (3) (2020)
6. A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks
   Energy Economics, 2023, 125, (C) View citations (24)
   See also Working Paper A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks, CFS Working Paper Series (2023) View citations (24) (2023)
7. Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery
   International Journal of Central Banking, 2023, 19, (1), 417-450 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery, CEPR Discussion Papers (2021) (2021)

2022

8. Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment
   Review of Economic Dynamics, 2022, 44, 244-268 View citations (2)
   See also Software Item Code and data files for "Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment", Computer Codes (2021) (2021)
   Working Paper Online Appendix to "Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment", Online Appendices (2021) (2021)
   Working Paper Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment, Working Papers (2021) (2021)
9. Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022, 126, (C) View citations (26)
   See also Working Paper Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates, CFS Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (4) (2020)
10. Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37, (5), 867-881 View citations (46)
11. The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2022, 54, (4), 953-987 View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada, Working Papers (2019) (2019)
12. The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23
    Energy Economics, 2022, 113, (C) View citations (80)
    See also Working Paper The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23, Working Papers (2021) View citations (2) (2021)

2020

13. A quantitative evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund program in China
    China Economic Review, 2020, 61, (C) View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper A Quantitative Evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund Program in China, Working Papers (2020) View citations (9) (2020)
14. Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020, 35, (6), 673-691 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Does drawing down the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve help stabilize oil prices?, CFS Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (15) (2020)
15. Refining the workhorse oil market model
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020, 35, (1), 130-140 View citations (53)
    See also Working Paper Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model, Working Papers (2019) View citations (29) (2019)

2018

16. ARE PRODUCT SPREADS USEFUL FOR FORECASTING OIL PRICES? AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF THE VERLEGER HYPOTHESIS
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018, 22, (3), 562-580 View citations (44)
17. Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?
    The Energy Journal, 2018, 39, (2_suppl), 117-137 View citations (10)
    See also Working Paper Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?, CESifo Working Paper Series (2017) View citations (4) (2017)
18. Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2018, 88, (C), 54-78 View citations (196)
    See also Working Paper Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities, Staff Working Papers (2018) View citations (13) (2018)

Chapters

2026

1. The Postpandemic US Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2026, volume 41, 2026
   See also Working Paper The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2026) (2026)

2023

2. The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
   A chapter in Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, 2023, vol. 45B, pp 65-95 View citations (17)
   See also Working Paper The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2020) View citations (23) (2020)

Software Items

2021

1. Code and data files for "Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2022) View citations (2) (2022)