The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata

Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou

No 2607, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, without significant declines in local wages. These inflows also raised local house prices and rents without expanding housing supply, consistent with a housing demand shock in the face of short-run inelastic supply. Lastly, we find that UIWF reduced labor income per capita, consistent with downward wage composition of the local workforce, and strongly reduced government transfers. These findings should help inform policy debates surrounding how unauthorized immigrant labor supply impacts local labor and housing markets as well as public finances.

Keywords: immigration; labor market; housing market; unauthorized immigration; post-pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 H53 J11 J21 J22 J23 J31 J61 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 65
Date: 2026-03-23
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddwp:102961

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DOI: 10.24149/wp2607

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