Working Papers

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2315: Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

Emily Greenwald, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl and Josh Younger

2314: Investing in the Batteries and Vehicles of the Future: A View Through the Stock Market

Michael D. Plante

2313: Marriage and Work Among Prime-Age Men

Adam Blandin, John Jones and Fang Yang

2312: Oil Price Shocks and Inflation

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

2311: High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects

Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina and Ali Ozdagli

2310: How to Construct Monthly VAR Proxies Based on Daily Futures Market Surprises

Lutz Kilian

2309: Global Transportation Decarbonization

Erich Muehlegger and David Rapson

2308: Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy

Chiara Scotti

2307: Complementary Currencies and Liquidity: The Case of Coca-Base Money

Cristian Frasser and Lucie Lebeau

2306: Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession

Michael D. Bordo and John Duca

2305: The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks

Andrew Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens

2304: Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks

Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante and Alexander W. Richter

2303: Debt Maturity and Commitment on Firm Policies

Andrea Gamba and Alessio Saretto

2302: State-Dependent Local Projections

Silvia Goncalves, Ana María Herrera, Lutz Kilian and Elena Pesavento

2301: Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

2224: A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

2223: Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings

Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander Richter

2222: Why Has U.S. Stock Ownership Doubled Since the Early 1980s? Equity Participation Over the Past Half Century

John Duca and Mark Walker

2221: The Dual Beveridge Curve

Anton Cheremukhin and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

2220: The Electric Ceiling: Limits and Costs of Full Electrification

James Bushnell and David Rapson

2219: Nonlinear Budget Set Regressions for the Random Utility Model

Sören Blomquist, Anil Kumar, Che-Yuan Liang and Whitney Newey

2218: Central Bank Digital Currency: Financial Inclusion vs. Disintermediation

Jeremie Banet and Lucie Lebeau

2217: A Rescue or a Trap?—An Analysis of Parent PLUS Student Loans

Wenhua Di, Carla Fletcher and Jeff Webster

2216: Consumption and Hours in the United States and Europe

Lei Fang and Fang Yang

2215: Operational Loss Recoveries and the Macroeconomic Environment: Evidence from the U.S. Banking Sector

W Frame, Nika Lazaryan, Ping McLemore and Atanas Mihov

2214: Are Equity Option Returns Abnormal? IPCA Says No

Amit Goyal and Alessio Saretto

2213: Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks

Ricardo Nunes, Ali Ozdagli and Jenny Tang

2212: Uncertainty, Shock Prices and Debt Structure: Evidence from the U.S.-China Trade War

Ali Ozdagli and Jianlin Wang

2211: Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth

Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

2210: Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth

Michael Dotsey, Wenli Li and Fang Yang

2209: The Effects of Audit Partners on Financial Reporting: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies

Gauri Bhat, Hemang Desai, W Frame, Christoffer Koch and Erik J. Mayer

2208: A Robust Test for Weak Instruments with Multiple Endogenous Regressors

Daniel Lewis and Karel Mertens

2207: The Impact of Minority Representation at Mortgage Lenders

W Frame, Ruidi Huang, Erik J. Mayer and Adi Sunderam

2206: How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers

Katya Kartashova and Xiaoqing Zhou

2205: When Do State-Dependent Local Projections Work?

Silvia Goncalves, Ana María Herrera, Lutz Kilian and Elena Pesavento

2204: Dynamic Identification Using System Projections on Instrumental Variables

Daniel Lewis and Karel Mertens

2203: Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks

Xiaoqing Zhou

2202: Endogenous Option Pricing

Andrea Gamba and Alessio Saretto

2201: The Matching Function and Nonlinear Business Cycles

Joshua Bernstein, Alexander Richter and Nathaniel Throckmorton

2117: Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read's 'Narrative Restrictions and Proxies'

Lutz Kilian

2116: The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23

Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou

2115: Empirical Bayes Control of the False Discovery Exceedance

Pallavi Basu, Luella Fu, Alessio Saretto and Wenguang Sun

2114: Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Katya Kartashova and Xiaoqing Zhou

2113: Bargaining Under Liquidity Constraints: Nash vs. Kalai in the Laboratory

John Duffy, Lucie Lebeau and Daniela Puzzello

2112: The Local Fiscal Multiplier of Intergovernmental Grants: Evidence from Federal Medicaid Assistance to States

Seth Giertz and Anil Kumar

2111: Wage Setting Under Targeted Search

Anton Cheremukhin and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

2110: Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data

Mary Burke and Ali Ozdagli

2109: Countercyclical Fluctuations in Uncertainty are Endogenous

Joshua Bernstein, Michael Plante, Alexander Richter and Nathaniel Throckmorton

2108: Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery

Lutz Kilian, Nikos Nomikos and Xiaoqing Zhou

2107: Conspicuous Consumption: Vehicle Purchases by Non-Prime Consumers

Wenhua Di and Yichen Su