Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Jesus Cañas, Aparna Jayashankar, Emily Kerr and Diego Morales-Burnett

No 2402, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully track changes in Texas employment, gross domestic product and consumer price index. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes are also useful in predicting future changes in some of these regional economic indicators.

Keywords: manufacturing; surveys; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C83 L60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35
Date: 2024-03-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ind
Note: This paper is related to Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper 1416,"Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance."
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DOI: 10.24149/wp2402

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