Working Papers

From Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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1908: The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

1907: Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling

Lutz Kilian

1906: Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?

Daniel Lewis, Christos Makridis and Karel Mertens

1905: Do Immigrants Threaten U.S. Public Safety?

Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny

1904: Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations

Soojin Jo and Justin Lee

1903: Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison

Jim Dolmas and Evan Koenig

1902: The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility

Ruijun Bu, Rodrigo Hizmeri, Marwan Izzeldin, Anthony Murphy and Mike Tsionas

1901: Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials

Michael Plante and Grant Strickler

1815: Argentina’s “Missing Capital” Puzzle and Limited Commitment Constraints

Marek Kapicka, Finn Kydland and Carlos Zarazaga

1814: Inflation and the Gig Economy: Have the Rise of Online Retailing and Self-Employment Disrupted the Phillips Curve?

John Duca

1813: Rationally Inattentive Consumer: An Experiment

Andrea Civelli, Cary Deck, Justin D. LeBlanc and Antonella Tutino

1812: Global Trends in Interest Rates

Marco Del Negro, Domenico Giannone, Marc Giannoni and Andrea Tambalotti

1811: A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

1810: Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Anil Kumar and Che-Yuan Liang

1809: Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Market: A Tale of Three Generations

Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny

1808: Valuation Risk Revalued

Oliver de Groot, Alexander Richter and Nathaniel Throckmorton

1807: Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

Jesus Cañas and Amy Jordan

1806: The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Small Business

Michael Bordo and John Duca

1805: The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford

Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn

1804: The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy

Tyler Atkinson, Alexander Richter and Nathaniel Throckmorton

1803: The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Karel Mertens

1802: OPEC in the News

Michael Plante

1801: The Death of the Phillips Curve?

Anthony Murphy

1711: Why Haven’t Regional Wages Converged?

Jason Saving

1710: Industry Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Re-Examination

Soojin Jo, Lilia Karnizova and Abeer Reza

1709: Does Medicaid Generosity Affect Household Income?

Anil Kumar

1708: The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Nida Cakir Melek, Michael Plante and Mine Yucel

1707: Equity Regulation and U.S. Venture Capital Investment

Tyler Atkinson and John Duca

1706: Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand: Comment

Oliver de Groot, Alexander Richter and Nathaniel Throckmorton

1705: A New Way to Quantify the Effect of Uncertainty

Alexander Richter and Nathaniel Throckmorton

1704: New Findings on the Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the United States

Pia Orrenius

1703: How Taxes and Required Returns Drove Commercial Real Estate Valuations over the Past Four Decades

John Duca, Patric Hendershott and David Ling

1702: Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters

Soojin Jo and Rodrigo Sekkel

1701: Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States: Recent Inflows and Possible Future Scenarios

Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny

1616: Fiscal stabilization and the credibility of the U.S. budget sequestration spending austerity

Ruiyang Hu and Carlos Zarazaga

1615: What drives economic policy uncertainty in the long and short runs? European and U.S. evidence over several decades

John Duca and Jason Saving

1614: What drives commodity price booms and busts?

David Jacks and Martin Stuermer

1613: The roles of inflation expectations, core inflation, and slack in real-time inflation forecasting

N Kishor and Evan Koenig

1612: Forward guidance and the state of the economy

Benjamin Keen, Alexander Richter and Nathaniel Throckmorton

1611: Estimating Taxable Income Responses with Elasticity Heterogeneity

Anil Kumar and Che-Yuan Liang

1610: Targeted search in matching markets

Anton Cheremukhin, Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria and Antonella Tutino

1609: Student loan relief programs: implications for borrowers and the federal government

Wenhua Di and Kelly Edmiston

1608: Residual seasonality in U.S. GDP data

Keith Phillips and Jack Wang

1607: The rank effect for commodities

Ricardo Fernholz and Christoffer Koch

1606: Are nonlinear methods necessary at the zero lower bound?

Alexander Richter and Nathaniel Throckmorton

1605: Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades

Michael Bordo, John Duca and Christoffer Koch

1604: Why are big banks getting bigger?

Ricardo Fernholz and Christoffer Koch

1603: Irregular immigration in the European Union

Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny

1602: Targeted business incentives and the debt behavior of households

Wenhua Di and Daniel Millimet

1601: Why does the FDIC sue?

Christoffer Koch and Ken Okamura