Working Papers

From Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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2626: Are We Consuming Too Much Groundwater?

Brian Greaney, Joseph S. Shapiro and Katherine R. H. Wagner

2625: What the Iran War Teaches Us about the Price Elasticity of Oil Supply

Lutz Kilian and Kunal Patel

2624: The Incidence of Fuel-Price Shocks and Tax Holidays: Evidence from the 2026 Oil Shock

Jacob Bradt and Reid Taylor

2623: Optimal Second-best Menu Design: Evidence from Residential Electricity Plans

Maria Garcia-Osipenko, Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Spencer Perry and Nicholas Vreugdenhil

2622: The Effects of U.S. Public R&D on Global Growth

Gustavo de Souza, Andrew Fieldhouse, Karel Mertens, Ishan Nath and Valerie Ramey

2621: Subnational Bilateral Remittance Flows in the U.S.-Mexico Corridor: A Multi-Source Imputation and Validation

Jesus Cañas and Miguel Flores

2620: Structural Estimation with Unstructured Data

Sara Casella, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Stephen Hansen, Ryohei Oishi and Minchul Shin

2619: xtcipsunb: The CIPS Panel Unit Root Test for Unbalanced Panel Data

Alexander Chudik and Benjamin Hoham

2618: Should States Reduce Teacher Licensing Requirements? Evidence from the Rise of For-Profit Training Programs in Texas

Christa Deneault and Evan Riehl

2617: Work from Home and Migration

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, Karel Mertens and Hannah Rubinton

2616: Semiparametric Local Projections

Silvia Goncalves, Ana María Herrera, Iones Kelanemer Holban, Lutz Kilian and Elena Pesavento

2615: How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy

Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander Richter

2614: The Interest Rate Effects of Government Debt and Deficits: Does Domestic Borrowing Have a Different Impact Than Foreign Borrowing?

Jonathan Davis and Lillian Derr

2613: Term Funding Premium—Time Is Money After All

Hugo De Vere, Ipek Ozil, Srini Ramaswamy and Seth Searls

2612: Can Creating Legal Pathways Reduce Unauthorized Immigration? Evidence from the CHNV Parole Program

Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny

2611: The Power to Discriminate

Samuel Dodini and Alexander Willén

2610: If You Build It, They May Not Come: Willingness to Participate in Managed EV Charging

Fiona Burlig, James Bushnell and David Rapson

2609: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis

Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante, Alexander Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

2608: Multinationals and Structural Transformation

Vanessa Alviarez, Cheng Chen, Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Liliana Varela, Kei-Mu Yi and Hongyong Zhang

2607: The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata

Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou

2606: Processing Power: The Effect of Data Centers on Wholesale Electricity Markets

Owen Kay, Robert Reaser and Reid Taylor

2605: Social Network and Sentiment Contagion: Evidence from the Bitcoin Market

Bing Han, Haoyang Liu and Pengfei Sui

2604: Investing in the Shadows: FinTech Growth and Mortgage Market Dynamics

Wenli Li and Xiaoqing Zhou

2603: Mean Group and Pooled Mixed-Frequency Estimators of Responses of Low-Frequency Variables to High-Frequency Shocks

Alexander Chudik and Lutz Kilian

2602: Disparate Impacts of Teacher Certification Exams

Christa Deneault, Evan Riehl and Jian Zou

2601: Weak Instrument Bias in Impulse Response Estimators

Daniel Lewis and Karel Mertens

2540: Smooth Operator? Managing Electric Vehicle Integration in Constrained Distribution Networks

David Rapson and Blake Shaffer

2539: Public Debt Levels and Real Interest Rates: Causal Evidence from Parliamentary Elections

Gabriel Ehrlich, Owen Kay and Aditi Thapar

2538: Optimal Foreign Reserve Intervention and Financial Development

Jonathan Davis, Kevin Huang, Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel

2537: Household Consumption and Savings over the Life Cycle: The Roles of Demographics and Durables

Neha Bairoliya, Areendam Chanda, Jingyi Fang and Fang Yang

2536: Lags, Leave-Outs and Fixed Effects

Alexander Chudik, Cameron Ellis and Johannes G. Jaspersen

2535: Subcontracting in Federal Spending: Micro and Macro Implications

Geumbi Park, Xiaoqing Zhou and Sarah Zubairy

2534: Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience

Anna Lipinska, Enrique Martínez García and Felipe Schwartzman

2533: Pollution Taxes and Clean Subsidies in an Open Economy

Owen Kay

2532: Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Jesus Cañas, Emily Kerr and Diego Morales-Burnett

2531: Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-U.S. Global Banks

Philippe Bacchetta, Jonathan Davis and Eric Van Wincoop

2530: Time-Limited Subsidies: Optimal Taxation with Implications for Renewable Energy Subsidies

Owen Kay and Michael Ricks

2529: A History of U.S. Tariffs: Quantifying Strategic Trade-Offs in Tariff Policy Design

Enrique Martínez García and Michael Sposi

2528: The Fatal Consequences of Brain Drain

Samuel Dodini, Katrine Løken, Petter Lundborg and Alexander Willen

2527: The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows

Felipe Saffie, Liliana Varela and Kei-Mu Yi

2526: Why Do Households Save and Work?

Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Johanna P. Torres Chain and Fang Yang

2525: An Asset-Liability Management Approach to the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Hugo De Vere, Srini Ramaswamy and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

2524: Technology Providers and Financial Stability: Overview of Risks and Regulatory Frameworks

Gene Amromin, Kenechukwu Anadu, Falk Bräuning, Amy Chapel, Rebecca Chmielewski, Meeoak Cho, Patricia K. Cowperthwait, Lorenzo Garza, Cindy E. Hull, Siobhan Sanders, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Brett Solimine and Emma Weiss

2523: Analysis of Multiple Long-Run Relations in Panel Data Models

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Ronald Smith

2522: Local Labor Markets and Selection into the Teaching Profession

Christa Deneault

2521: Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance

Enrique Martínez García and Efthymios Pavlidis

2520: What Drives Cyber Losses at U.S. Banks? Potential Statistical Markers

Seth Dunbar, Kelly Klemme, Anthony Murphy, Joseph I. Suek and Michael Tindall

2519: The Social Returns to Public R&D

Andrew Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens

2518: An Information-Based Theory of Monopsony Power

Anton Cheremukhin and Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

2517: Household Finance Shapes Political Participation: Evidence from Mortgage Refinancing

Haoyang Liu, W. Ben McCartney, Rodney Ramcharan, Calvin Zhang and Xiaohan Zhang