Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy

Jesus Cañas, Emily Kerr and Diego Morales-Burnett

No 2532, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) is a monthly survey of service sector and retail firms in Texas conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TSSOS indexes provide timely information about activity in the Texas private service sector, which makes up the bulk of the state economy. The survey provides invaluable information on regional economic conditions—information that the Dallas Fed president and economists use in the formulation of monetary policy and informing the public. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TSSOS indexes successfully track changes in Texas employment, gross domestic product and inflation. Forecasting exercises show that many TSSOS indexes are also useful in predicting future changes in some of the same metrics.

Keywords: service sector; business outlook surveys; diffusion indexes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B23 C53 C83 L80 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2025-08-13
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddwp:101524

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DOI: 10.24149/wp2532

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