U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past

Lutz Kilian, Michael Plante and Alexander Richter
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Lutz Kilian: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economists/kilian

Dallas Fed Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.

Keywords: oil price; geopolitics; oil supply disruptions; structural change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-23
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