Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable

Tyler Atkinson

Dallas Fed Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?

Keywords: unemployment; forecasting; recession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10-08
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:d00001:98953

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