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COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis and Brent Meyer

No 2021-3, FRB Atlanta Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Abstract: Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We compute these rates by aggregating over monthly firm-level observations that look back 12 months and ahead 12 months. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative employment growth trends in favor of industries with a high capacity of employees to work from home and against those with a low capacity.

Keywords: COVID-19; reallocation shock; business expectations; work from home; Survey of Business Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D22 D84 E23 E24 J21 J62 J63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11
Date: 2021-01-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-hrm and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Published in 2021

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Journal Article: COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock (2021) Downloads
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DOI: 10.29338/wp2021-03

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