Index arbitrage and nonlinear dynamics between the S&P 500 futures and cash

Gerald Dwyer, Peter Locke and Wei Yu

No 95-17, FRB Atlanta Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Abstract: We use a cost of carry model with nonzero transactions costs to motivate estimation of a nonlinear dynamic relationship between the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. Discontinuous arbitrage suggests that a threshold error correction mechanism may characterize many aspects of the relationship between the futures and cash indexes. We use minute-by-minute data on the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. The results indicate that nonlinear dynamics are important and related to arbitrage and suggest that arbitrage is associated with more rapid convergence of the basis to the cost of carry than would be indicated by a linear model.

Keywords: Arbitrage; Futures; Stock market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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Published in Review of Financial Studies, Spring 1996

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Journal Article: Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash (1996)
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