EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997

Michael Bordo () and Joseph Haubrich ()

No 402, Working Papers (Old Series) from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across different monetary regimes. In accord with our proposed theory, regimes with low credibility (high persistence of inflation) tend to have better predictability.

Keywords: Interest rates; Bonds; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-mon
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsr ... gime%20pdf.pdf?la=en Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997 (2004) Downloads
Working Paper: The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997 (2004) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0402

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers (Old Series) from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by 4D Library ().

 
Page updated 2019-10-16
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0402