The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997
Michael Bordo () and
Joseph Haubrich ()
No 165, Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings from Econometric Society
Most work showing the yield curve predicts future economic growth relies on post WWII data. We demonstrate that the yield curve has predictive content for most of the post Civil War period. This predictive ability, however, is closely related to the credibility of the monetary regime in place, something we measure by the persistence of inflation
Keywords: Yield Curve; Monetary Regime; credibility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E42 E43 G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (42) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997 (2004)
Working Paper: The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997 (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecm:nasm04:165
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings from Econometric Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().