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The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997

Michael Bordo () and Joseph Haubrich ()

No 165, Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings from Econometric Society

Abstract: Most work showing the yield curve predicts future economic growth relies on post WWII data. We demonstrate that the yield curve has predictive content for most of the post Civil War period. This predictive ability, however, is closely related to the credibility of the monetary regime in place, something we measure by the persistence of inflation

Keywords: Yield Curve; Monetary Regime; credibility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E42 G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2004-08-11
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http://repec.org/esNASM04/up.8986.1074886816.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997 (2004) Downloads
Working Paper: The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997 (2004) Downloads
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