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Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District

Bruce Fallick () and Murat Tasci

No 202019, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.

Keywords: unemployment rate; trend; Federal Reserve district (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E24 D21 J6 R1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18
Date: 2020-07-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202019

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