Working Papers

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23-07: Optimal Fiscal Reform with Many Taxes

Daniel R. Carroll, Andre Luduvice and Eric R. Young

23-06: Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics: Higher for Longer

Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman

23-05: Bayesian Modeling of Time-Varying Parameters Using Regression Trees

Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Gary Koop and James Mitchell

23-04: Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience

Mathieu Pedemonte, Hiroshi Toma and Estaban Verdugo

23-03: The Hard Road to a Soft Landing: Evidence from a (Modestly) Nonlinear Structural Model

Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman

23-02: House Prices and Rents in the 21st Century

Lara Loewenstein and Paul Willen

23-01: The Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks on Firms' Expectations

Serafin Frache, Rodrigo Lluberas, Mathieu Pedemonte and Javier Turen

22-39: Corporate tax cuts and the decline of the manufacturing labor share

Baris Kaymak and Immo Schott

22-38: Disentangling rent index differences: data, methods, and scope

Brian Adams, Lara Loewenstein, Hugh Montag and Randal Verbrugge

22-37: What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?

Todd Clark, Gergely Ganics and Elmar Mertens

22-36: Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts

Todd Clark, Gergely Ganics and Elmar Mertens

22-35: Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence

Ina Hajdini, Edward Knotek, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Robert Rich and Raphael Schoenle

22-34: Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices Revisited: A Bayesian VAR-GMM Approach

Takushi Kurozumi, Ryohei Oishi and Willem Van Zandweghe

22-33: The US Banks’ Balance Sheet Transmission Channel of Oil Price Shocks

Paolo Gelain and Marco Lorusso

22-32: State Appropriations and Employment at Higher Education Institutions

Peter Hinrichs

22-31: The Hedgehog’s Curse: Knowledge Specialization and Displacement Loss

Victor Hernandez Martinez, Hans Holter and Roberto Pinheiro

22-30: A Spanner in the Works: Restricting Labor Mobility and the Inevitable Capital-Labor Substitution

Bharadwaj Kannan, Roberto Pinheiro and Harry Turtle

22-29: The financial accelerator mechanism: does frequency matter?

Claudia Foroni, Paolo Gelain and Massimiliano Marcellino

22-28: Accounting for Wealth Concentration in the United States

Baris Kaymak, David Leung and Markus Poschke

22-27: The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States

Bruce Fallick and Christopher Foote

22-26: A Comment on 'Wealth Inequality and Endogenous Growth' by Byoungchan Lee

Shijun Gu and Chengcheng Jia

22-25: Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino

22-24: The Effect of Minimum Wages on Consumer Bankruptcy

Diego Legal and Eric Young

22-23: Improving Inflation Forecasts Using Robust Measures

Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman

22-22: Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth

Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

22-21: Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation

Ina Hajdini, Edward Knotek, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Robert Rich and Raphael Schoenle

22-20: Greater Than the Sum of the Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations

Alexander Dietrich, Edward Knotek, Kristian Ove R. Myrseth, Robert Rich, Raphael Schoenle and Michael Weber

22-19: The Lightning Network: Turning Bitcoin into Money

Anantha Divakaruni and Peter Zimmerman

22-18: Credit Availability for Minority Business Owners in an Evolving Credit Environment: Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Brett Barkley and Mark Schweitzer

22-17: Labor Supply Shocks, Labor Force Entry, and Monetary Policy

Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

22-16: The Value of Unemployment Insurance: Liquidity vs. Insurance Value

Victor Hernandez Martinez and Kaixin Liu

22-15: The Geographic Effects of Monetary Policy

Juan Herreño and Mathieu Pedemonte

22-14: Accounting for Risk in a Linearized Solution: How to Approximate the Risky Steady State and Around It

Pierlauro Lopez, David Lopez-Salido and Francisco Vazquez-Grande

22-13: Surveys of Professionals

Michael Clements, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

22-12: Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics

James Mitchell, Aubrey Poon and Dan Zhu

22-11: How Do Banks Respond to Capital Regulation? — The Impact of the Basel III Reforms in the United States

Nicholas Fritsch and Jan-Peter Siedlarek

22-10: Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements

Gustavo de Souza and André Victor Doherty Luduvice

22-09: Loan Modifications and the Commercial Real Estate Market

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

22-08: Federal Reserve Structure and Economic Ideas

Michael Bordo and Edward Prescott

22-07: Labor Substitutability among Schooling Groups

Mark Bils, Baris Kaymak and Kai-Jie Wu

22-06: Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates

Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre, James Mitchell and Aubrey Poon

22-05: Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models

Todd Clark, Florian Huber, Gary Koop and Massimiliano Marcellino

22-04: Is the grass really greener? Migrants' improvements in local labor market conditions and financial health

Stephan Whitaker

22-03: Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

Ina Hajdini

22-02: Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context

Yu Bai, Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino

22-01: Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US

Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre, James Mitchell and Aubrey Poon

21-29: Effects of Wildfire Destruction on Migration, Consumer Credit, and Financial Distress

Jennifer Balch, Katherine Curtis, Jack DeWaard, Elizabeth Fussell, Kathryn McConnell, Kobie Price, Lise St. Denis and Stephan Whitaker

21-28R: Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP

Ana Galvão and James Mitchell

21-27: Wealth Effects, Price Markups, and the Neo-Fisherian Hypothesis

Marco Airaudo and Ina Hajdini

21-26: Liquidity, Capital Pledgeability and Inflation Redistribution

Paola Boel, Julian Diaz and Daria Finocchiaro