Working Papers

From Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
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26-29: Keeping up with the Jansens: Causal Peer Effects on Household Spending, Beliefs and Happiness

Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maarten van Rooij

26-28: Stablecoin-on-Creditor Violence

Jeffery Y. Zhang and Peter Zimmerman

26-27: Aggression of the Weak

Baris Kaymak

26-26: Inflation Expectations and Household Spending: Different Patterns in Low- and High-Inflation Settings

Bernardo Candia

26-25: How to Reform US Long-Term Care

R. Braun and Karen Kopecky

26-24: The Recent Evolution of AI-Related Labor Demand

Kevin Rinz

26-23: Inflation Inattention on the Production Network: Firm-Level Evidence and Macro Implications

Rafael Gonçalves and Ina Hajdini

26-22: AI-Augmented Capital-Skill Complementarity

André Victor Doherty Luduvice and Roberto Pinheiro

26-21: From Pink Slips to Polling Stations: The Electoral Consequences of Mass-Layoff Announcements

Victor Hernandez Martinez and Pawel Krolikowski

26-20: Carrots or Sticks? Short-Time Work vs. Layoff Taxes

Gero Stiepelmann and Johannes Weber

26-19: Financial and Production Integration in the Macroeconomy

Emanuele Brancati, Qingqing Cao, Raoul Minetti and Nicholas Jaehyun Yi

26-18: Macroeconomic Parameter Instability in Auto Loan Loss Models

Nicholas Fritsch and Edward Prescott

26-17: CRE Development Potential and the Selection of Opportunity Zones

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

26-16: Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance

Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber

26-15: Measuring Overtime Exemption Status: A Task-Based Approach

Kevin Rinz

26-14: A Nonparametric Approach to Augmenting a Bayesian VAR with Nonlinear Factors

Todd Clark, Florian Huber and Gary Koop

26-13: Nonresponse Imputations and Related Measurement Issues in the CPI for Shelter

Lara Loewenstein, Hugh Montag and Randal Verbrugge

26-12: Sticky Rents: A Simple Implicit-Contracts Theory

Hugh Montag and Randal Verbrugge

26-11: Unemployment Insurance Generosity and Wage Determination

Kevin Rinz and David Wasser

26-10: Fixing the Phillips Curve: Implications of Firms' Monopsonistic Wage-setting for Inflation Dynamics

Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

26-09: Technological Change and Racial Wage Gaps

Vittoria Dicandia

26-08: A New Model of Trend Inflation Using Disaggregates, Survey Expectations, and Uncertainty

Ellis Tallman and Saeed Zaman

26-07: Optimal Short-Time Work Policy in Recessions

Gero Stiepelmann

26-06: Beyond Banks: Trust Among the Financially Underserved

Paola Boel, Daniela Puzzello and Peter Zimmerman

26-05: The Causal Effects of Tariff Uncertainty on Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations and Spending Plans

Bernardo Candia, James Mitchell and Damjan Pfajfar

26-04: Incorporating Micro Data into Macro Models Using Pseudo VARs

Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre, James Mitchell and Ping Wu

26-03: A Shock by Any Other Name? Reconsidering the Impacts of Local Demand Shocks

Sean Bassler, Kevin Rinz, David Wasser and Abigail Wozniak

26-02: Factors Affecting Regional Bank Health and Supervisory Rating: An Exploration

Denise Duffy, Joseph Haubrich and Christopher Healy

26-01: When Trade Compresses: The Impact of Liberalization on Wage Inequality

Victor Hernandez Martinez, Nicholas Kozeniauskas and Roman Merga

25-26: BLS Payroll Revisions: Forecasting Recessions

Roberto Pinheiro and Rory G. Quinlan

25-25: Banking on Experience. Capital Reallocation, Asset Knowledge, and the Structure of Credit Contracts

Qingqing Cao, Hans Degryse, Sotirios Kokas and Raoul Minetti

25-24: Monopsonistic Wage-setting and Monetary Policy

Takushi Kurozumi, Yu Sugioka and Willem Van Zandweghe

25-23: State-Dependent Sticky Expectations: Evidence and Theory

Kenneth Eva, Michael Lamla and Damjan Pfajfar

25-22: Is There a Puzzle in Underwater Mortgage Default?

Lara Loewenstein, Paul Willen, Yuxi Yao and David Hao Zhang

25-21: Tariffs, Stablecoins, and the Demand for Dollars

Anantha Divakaruni and Peter Zimmerman

25-20: Part-Time for Economic Reasons During the Global Financial Crisis

Bruce Fallick

25-19: Robinson Meets Roy: Monopsony Power and Comparative Advantage

Mark Bils, Baris Kaymak and Kai-Jie Wu

25-18: Organizational Form and Thrift Risk During the US Housing Boom and Bust

Eliana Balla, Edward Prescott and Grant Rosenberger

25-17: Supply Chain Networks and the Macroeconomic Expectations of Firms

Ina Hajdini, Saten Kumar, Samreen Malik, Jordan Norris and Mathieu Pedemonte

25-16: Cohabitation, Child Development, and College Costs

Effrosyni Adamopoulou, Anne Hannusch, Karen Kopecky and Tim Obermeier

WP 25-15: Rising Skill Supply, Technological Changes, and Innovation: A Quantitative Exploration of China

Shijun Gu and Chengcheng Jia

25-14R: Firm Size, Heterogeneous Strategic Complementarities, and Real Rigidity

Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

25-13: Opioids and Post-COVID Labor-Force Participation

Francesco Chiocchio, Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

25-12: Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Damjan Pfajfar and Fabian Winkler

25-11: Are Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the US Well Behaved?

James Mitchell and Taylor Shiroff

25-10: The Secondary Market for Syndicated Loans

Jan-Peter Siedlarek and Vladimir Yankov

25-09: Tail Sensitivity of US Bank Net Interest Margins: A Bayesian Penalized Quantile Regression Approach

Nicholas Fritsch

25-08: Endogenous Labor Supply in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model: Nominal versus Real Rigidities

Isabel Cairo, Hess Chung, Francesco Ferrante, Cristina Fuentes-Albero, Camilo Morales-Jimenez and Damjan Pfajfar

25-07: Black Mayors and Black Communities

Craig Sylvera

25-06: A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle

Yan Bai, Patrick Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez and Fabrizio Perri