Working Papers

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20-31: Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach

Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

20-30: Fireside Chats: Communication and Consumers’ Expectations in the Great Depression

Mathieu Pedemonte

20-29: Quantitative Easing and Direct Lending in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis

Filippo Occhino

20-28: On the Importance of Household versus Firm Credit Frictions in the Great Recession

Patrick Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez, Virgiliu Midrigan and Elena Pastorino

20-27: No-Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino

20-26R: Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Edward Knotek

20-25: Information and Inequality in the Time of a Pandemic

Allan Dizioli and Roberto Pinheiro

20-24R: Low Interest Rates and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve

Michael Bordo and Joseph Haubrich

20-23: Government Debt Limits and Stabilization Policy

Daniel Murphy and Eric Young

20-22R2: Late Payment Fees and Nonpayment in Rental Markets, and Implications for Inflation Measurement: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence

Wesley Janson and Randal Verbrugge

20-21: Evaluating the Benefits of a Streamlined Refinance Program

Kristopher Gerardi, Lara Loewenstein and Paul Willen

20-20: Output-Inflation Trade-offs and the Optimal Inflation Rate

Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

20-19: Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District

Bruce Fallick and Murat Tasci

20-18R2: On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs

Daniel Carroll and Sewon Hur

20-17: Asymmetric Responses of Consumer Spending to Energy Prices: A Threshold VAR Approach

Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

20-16: Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?

Jean-Paul L'Huillier and Raphael Schoenle

20-15: Big G

Lydia Cox, Gernot Müller, Ernesto Pasten and Raphael Schoenle

20-14: Monetary Policy with Judgment

Paolo Gelain and Simone Manganelli

20-13R2: Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino

20-12R: News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact

Alexander Dietrich, Keith Kuester, Gernot Müller and Raphael Schoenle

20-11: The Rise of Fintech Lending to Small Businesses: Businesses’ Perspectives on Borrowing

Brett Barkley and Mark Schweitzer

20-10: Asset Prices and Unemployment Fluctuations

Patrick Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez, Virgiliu Midrigan and Elena Pastorino

20-09: Intermediation in the Interbank Lending Market

Ben Craig and Yiming Ma

20-08: A New Tool for Robust Estimation and Identification of Unusual Data Points

Christian Garciga and Randal Verbrugge

20-07: Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus

Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Daniel Murphy, Kieran Walsh and Eric Young

20-06: Oligopsonies over the Business Cycle

Daniel Monte and Roberto Pinheiro

20-05: Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions

Francesco Furlanetto, Paolo Gelain and Marzie Sanjani

20-04: A Model of Expenditure Shocks

Jorge Miranda-Pino, Daniel Murphy, Kieran Walsh and Eric Young

20-03R: Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss

Pawel Krolikowski and Kurt Lunsford

20-02R: Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino

20-01R2: Making Friends Meet: Network Formation with Introductions

Jan-Peter Siedlarek

19-30R: Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies

Marianna Kudlyak, Murat Tasci and Didem Tuzemen

19-29: Sequential Bayesian Inference for Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility

Mark Bognanni and John Zito

19-28: The Macroeconomic Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Filippo Occhino

19-27R: Job Displacement and Job Mobility: The Role of Joblessness

Bruce Fallick, John Haltiwanger and Erika McEntarfer

19-26R: The Optimal Taxation of Business Owners

Thomas Phelan

19-25R: The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy

Ernesto Pasten, Raphael Schoenle and Michael Weber

19-24: The Effects of Price Endings on Price Rigidity: Evidence from VAT Changes

Edward Knotek, Doron Sayag and Avichai Snir

19-23: The Roles of Price Points and Menu Costs in Price Rigidity

Edward Knotek

19-22: Forward Guidance under Imperfect Information: Instrument Based or State Contingent?

Chengcheng Jia

19-21: Recreating Banking Networks under Decreasing Fixed Costs

Ben Craig, Dietmar Maringer and Sandra Paterlini

19-20: Banker Compensation, Relative Performance, and Bank Risk

Arantxa Jarque and Edward Prescott

19-19: Cross-Sectional Patterns of Mortgage Debt during the Housing Boom: Evidence and Implications

Christopher Foote, Lara Loewenstein and Paul Willen

19-18R: The Dynamics of the Racial Wealth Gap

Dionissi Aliprantis, Daniel Carroll and Eric Young

19-17R2: On the Optimality of Differential Asset Taxation

Thomas Phelan

19-16: A Theory of Intrinsic Inflation Persistence

Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

19-15: Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?

Carola Binder, Wesley Janson and Randal Verbrugge

19-14: Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

19-13: Federal Reserve Structure, Economic Ideas, and Monetary and Financial Policy

Michael Bordo and Edward Prescott

19-12: The Effect of Possible EU Diversification Requirements on the Risk of Banks’ Sovereign Bond Portfolios

Ben Craig, Margherita Giuzio and Sandra Paterlini