Working Papers

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WP 25-15: Rising Skill Supply, Technological Changes, and Innovation: A Quantitative Exploration of China

Shijun Gu and Chengcheng Jia

25-14: Firm Size, Heterogeneous Strategic Complementarities, and Real Rigidity

Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

25-13: Opioids and Post-COVID Labor-Force Participation

Francesco Chiocchio, Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

25-12: Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Damjan Pfajfar and Fabian Winkler

25-11: Are Revisions to State-Level GDP Data in the US Well Behaved?

James Mitchell and Taylor Shiroff

25-10: The Secondary Market for Syndicated Loans

Jan-Peter Siedlarek and Vladimir Yankov

25-09: Tail Sensitivity of US Bank Net Interest Margins: A Bayesian Penalized Quantile Regression Approach

Nicholas Fritsch

25-08: Endogenous Labor Supply in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model: Nominal versus Real Rigidities

Isabel Cairo, Hess Chung, Francesco Ferrante, Cristina Fuentes-Albero, Camilo Morales-Jimenez and Damjan Pfajfar

25-07: Black Mayors and Black Communities

Craig Sylvera

25-06: A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle

Yan Bai, Patrick Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez and Fabrizio Perri

25-05: Income Inequality and Economic Growth in United States Counties: 1990s, 2000s and 2010s

Kyle Fee

25-04: Immigrants' Legalization and Firms: Evidence from the 2007 EU Enlargement

Vittoria Dicandia and Silvia Vannutelli

25-03: Tariffs and Goods-Market Search Frictions

Pawel Krolikowski and Andrew McCallum

25-02: Quantifying the Signaling Role of Education

Baris Kaymak

25-01: Federal Reserve Structure, Economic Ideas, and Banking Policy During the "Quiet Period" in Banking

Michael Bordo and Edward Prescott

24-28: The Nature of Technological Change 1960-2016

Costas Cavounidis, Vittoria Dicandia, Kevin Lang and Raghav Malhotra

24-27: A Note on Aggregating Preferences for Redistribution

Daniel Carroll, André Victor Doherty Luduvice and Eric Young

24-26: Inflation and Deflationary Biases in the Distribution of Inflation Expectations: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Nine Countries

Michael Lamla, Damjan Pfajfar and Lea Rendell

24-25: Practice Makes Perfect: Learning Effects with Household Point and Density Forecasts of Inflation

Hana Braitsch, James Mitchell and Taylor Shiroff

24-24: Are Friends of Schools the Enemies of Equity? The Interplay of School Funding Policies and External Fundraising

Lisa Barrow, Sarah Komisarow and Lauren Sartain

24-23: Reservation Wages Revisited: Empirics with the Canonical Model

Steven Davis and Pawel Krolikowski

24-22: Work, Poverty, and Social Benefits Over the Past Three Decades

Lisa Barrow, Bea Rivera and Diane Schanzenbach

24-21: Collusion in Repeated Auctions with Costless Communication

Roberto Pinheiro

24-20: An Empirical Evaluation of Some Long-Horizon Macroeconomic Forecasts

Kurt Lunsford and Kenneth D. West

24-19: An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters

Michael Clements, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

24-18: The Downward Spiral: A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Opioid Crisis

Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

24-17: Reforming the US Long-Term Care Insurance Market

R. Braun and Karen Kopecky

24-16: Introducing a Framework for Measuring the Quantitative Benefits of Privacy-Enhancing Technologies

Ken Isaacson

24-15: CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

24-14: On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

24-13: Equilibrium Multiplicity in Aiyagari and Krusell-Smith

Kieran Walsh and Eric Young

24-12: Capital-Skill Complementarity in Manufacturing: Lessons from the US Shale Boom

Victor Hernandez Martinez

24-11: Oil Price Fluctuations and US Banks

Paolo Gelain, Marco Lorusso and Saeed Zaman

24-10: Sixty Years of Global Inflation: A Post-GFC Update

Raphael Auer, Mathieu Pedemonte and Raphael Schoenle

24-09: Consumer Bankruptcy and Unemployment Insurance

Diego Legal and Eric Young

24-08: Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts

Ina Hajdini and André Kurmann

24-07: The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations

Martha Elena Delgado, Juan Herreño, Marc Hofstetter and Mathieu Pedemonte

24-06: Nowcasting Inflation

Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman

24-05: Short Selling and Bank Deposit Flows

Mark Carey and Christopher Healy

24-04: The Role of Friends in the Opioid Epidemic

Effrosyni Adamopoulou, Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner and Karen Kopecky

24-03: Interest Rate Risk at US Credit Unions

Grant Rosenberger and Peter Zimmerman

24-02R: Improving the Median CPI: Maximal Disaggregation Isn't Necessarily Optimal

Christian Garciga, Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman

24-01R: The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers' Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance

Edward Knotek, James Mitchell, Mathieu Pedemonte and Taylor Shiroff

23-36: Can Supply Shocks Be Inflationary with a Flat Phillips Curve?

Jean-Paul L'Huillier and Gregory Phelan

23-35: A DSGE Model Including Trend Information and Regime Switching at the ZLB

Paolo Gelain and Pierlauro Lopez

23-34: Forecasting Core Inflation and Its Goods, Housing, and Supercore Components

Todd Clark, Matthew Gordon and Saeed Zaman

23-33: Tax Heterogeneity and Misallocation

Baris Kaymak and Immo Schott

23-32: How Important Is the Information Effect of Monetary Policy?

Zhao Han and Chengcheng Jia

23-31: The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations

James Mitchell and Saeed Zaman

23-30: Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function

Tony Chernis, Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Gary Koop and James Mitchell