Working Papers
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- 202108: Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

- Todd Clark, Florian Huber, Gary Koop, Massimiliano Marcellino and Michael Pfarrhofer
- 202107: Municipal Markets and the Municipal Liquidity Facility

- John Bagley, Nicholas Fritsch and Shawn Nee
- 202106: All Forecasters Are Not the Same: Time-Varying Predictive Ability across Forecast Environments

- Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy
- 202105: Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy

- Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe
- 202104: Applications of Markov Chain Approximation Methods to Optimal Control Problems in Economics

- Keyvan Eslami and Tom Phelan
- 202103: Location, Location, Structure Type: Rent Divergence within Neighborhoods

- Brian Adams and Randal Verbrugge
- 202037: Neighborhood Sorting Obscures Neighborhood Effects in the Opportunity Atlas

- Dionissi Aliprantis and Hal Martin
- 202036: What Determines the Success of Housing Mobility Programs?

- Dionissi Aliprantis, Hal Martin and Kristen Tauber
- 202035: Macroeconomic Changes with Declining Trend Inflation: Complementarity with the Superstar Firm Hypothesis

- Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe
- 202034: Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?

- Joseph Haubrich
- 202033: Even Keel and the Great Inflation

- Victoria Consolvo, Owen Humpage and Sanchita Mukherjee
- 202032: Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era

- Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino and Elmar Mertens
- 202031: Real-Time Density Nowcasts of US Inflation: A Model-Combination Approach

- Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman
- 202030: Fireside Chats: Communication and Consumers’ Expectations in the Great Depression

- Mathieu Pedemonte
- 202029: Quantitative Easing and Direct Lending in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis

- Filippo Occhino
- 202028: On the Importance of Household versus Firm Credit Frictions in the Great Recession

- Patrick Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez, Virgiliu Midrigan and Elena Pastorino
- 202027: No-Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

- Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino
- 202026: Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations

- Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Edward Knotek
- 202025: Information and Inequality in the Time of a Pandemic

- Allan Dizioli and Roberto Pinheiro
- 202024: Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve

- Michael Bordo and Joseph Haubrich
- 202023: Government Debt Limits and Stabilization Policy

- Daniel Murphy and Eric Young
- 202022R: Late Payment Fees and Nonpayment in Rental Markets, and Implications for Inflation Measurement: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence

- Wesley Janson and Randal Verbrugge
- 202021: Evaluating the Benefits of a Streamlined Refinance Program

- Kristopher Gerardi, Lara Loewenstein and Paul S. Willen
- 202020: Output-Inflation Trade-offs and the Optimal Inflation Rate

- Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe
- 202019: Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District

- Bruce Fallick and Murat Tasci
- 202018: On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs

- Daniel Carroll and Sewon Hur
- 202017: Asymmetric Responses of Consumer Spending to Energy Prices: A Threshold VAR Approach

- Edward Knotek and Saeed Zaman
- 202016: Raising the Inflation Target: How Much Extra Room Does It Really Give?

- Jean-Paul L'Huillier and Raphael Schoenle
- 202015: Big G

- Gernot Müller, Ernesto Pasten and Raphael Schoenle
- 202014: Monetary Policy with Judgment

- Paolo Gelain and Simone Manganelli
- 202013R2: Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators

- Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino
- 202012: News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact

- Keith Kuester, Gernot Müller and Raphael Schoenle
- 202011: The Rise of Fintech Lending to Small Businesses: Businesses’ Perspectives on Borrowing

- Brett Barkley and Mark Schweitzer
- 202010: Asset Prices and Unemployment Fluctuations

- Patrick Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez, Virgiliu Midrigan and Elena Pastorino
- 202009: Intermediation in the Interbank Lending Market

- Ben Craig and Yiming Ma
- 202008: A New Tool for Robust Estimation and Identification of Unusual Data Points

- Christian Garciga and Randal Verbrugge
- 202007: Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus

- Jorge Miranda-Pinto, Daniel Murphy, Kieran Walsh and Eric Young
- 202006: Oligopsonies over the Business Cycle

- Daniel Monte and Roberto Pinheiro
- 202005: Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions

- Francesco Furlanetto, Paolo Gelain and Marzie Sanjani
- 202004: A Model of Expenditure Shocks

- Jorge Miranda-Pino, Daniel Murphy, Kieran Walsh and Eric Young
- 202003: Advance Layoff Notices and Labor Market Forecasting

- Pawel Krolikowski and Kurt Lunsford
- 202002R: Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions

- Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino
- 202001: Making Friends Meet: Network Formation with Introductions

- Jan-Peter Siedlarek
- 201930: Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies

- Marianna Kudlyak, Murat Tasci and Didem Tuzemen
- 201929: Sequential Bayesian Inference for Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility

- Mark Bognanni and John Zito
- 201928: The Macroeconomic Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

- Filippo Occhino
- 201927: Job-to-Job Flows and the Consequences of Job Separations

- Bruce Fallick, John Haltiwanger and Erika McEntarfer
- 201926: The Optimal Taxation of Business Owners

- Tom Phelan
- 201925R: The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy

- Ernesto Pasten, Raphael Schoenle and Michael Weber
- 201924: The Effects of Price Endings on Price Rigidity: Evidence from VAT Changes

- Edward Knotek, Doron Sayag and Avichai Snir
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