Working Papers

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22-15: The Geographic Effects of Monetary Policy

Juan Herreño and Mathieu Pedemonte

22-14: Accounting for Risk in a Linearized Solution: How to Approximate the Risky Steady State and Around It

Pierlauro Lopez, David Lopez-Salido and Francisco Vazquez-Grande

22-13: Surveys of Professionals

Michael Clements, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

22-12R: Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics

James Mitchell, Aubrey Poon and Dan Zhu

22-11: How Do Banks Respond to Capital Regulation? — The Impact of the Basel III Reforms in the United States

Nicholas Fritsch and Jan-Peter Siedlarek

22-10R: Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements

Gustavo de Souza and André Victor Doherty Luduvice

22-09: Loan Modifications and the Commercial Real Estate Market

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

22-08: Federal Reserve Structure and Economic Ideas

Michael Bordo and Edward Prescott

22-07: Labor Substitutability among Schooling Groups

Mark Bils, Baris Kaymak and Kai-Jie Wu

22-06: Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates

Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre, James Mitchell and Aubrey Poon

22-05: Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models

Todd Clark, Florian Huber, Gary Koop and Massimiliano Marcellino

22-04: Is the grass really greener? Migrants' improvements in local labor market conditions and financial health

Stephan Whitaker

22-03R: Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

Ina Hajdini

22-02: Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context

Yu Bai, Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark and Massimiliano Marcellino

22-01: Reconciled Estimates of Monthly GDP in the US

Gary Koop, Stuart McIntyre, James Mitchell and Aubrey Poon

21-29: Effects of Wildfire Destruction on Migration, Consumer Credit, and Financial Distress

Jennifer Balch, Katherine Curtis, Jack DeWaard, Elizabeth Fussell, Kathryn McConnell, Kobie Price, Lise St. Denis and Stephan Whitaker

21-28R: Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP

Ana Galvão and James Mitchell

21-27: Wealth Effects, Price Markups, and the Neo-Fisherian Hypothesis

Marco Airaudo and Ina Hajdini

21-26: Liquidity, Capital Pledgeability and Inflation Redistribution

Paola Boel, Julian Diaz and Daria Finocchiaro

21-25: Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections

Aysegul Sahin, Murat Tasci and Jin Yan

21-24R: Firm Dynamics and SOE Transformation During China’s Economic Reform

Shijun Gu and Chengcheng Jia

21-23R2: A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars

Saeed Zaman

21-22: Migration as a Vector of Economic Losses from Disaster-Affected Areas in the United States

Catalina Anampa Castro, Katherine Curtis, Jack DeWaard, Elizabeth Fussell, Kathryn McConnell, Kobie Price, Michael Soto and Stephan Whitaker

21-21: The Macroeconomic Effects of Universal Basic Income Programs

André Victor Doherty Luduvice

21-20: Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman, Lara Loewenstein and Joseph B. Nichols

21-19R: Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency And Intentional Ambiguity

Chengcheng Jia and Jing Cynthia Wu

21-18: IT and Urban Polarization

Jan Eeckhout, Christoph Hedtrich and Roberto Pinheiro

21-17: The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Micro Pricing Moments

Gee Hee Hong, Matthew Klepacz, Ernesto Pasten and Raphael Schoenle

21-16R: Welfare Implications of Asset Pricing Facts: Should Central Banks Fill Gaps or Remove Volatility?

Pierlauro Lopez

21-15: Optimal Epidemic Control in Equilibrium with Imperfect Testing and Enforcement

Thomas Phelan and Alexis Akira Toda

21-14R2: The Welfare Costs of Business Cycles Unveiled: Measuring the Extent of Stabilization Policies

Fernando Barros, Fábio Gomes and André Victor Doherty Luduvice

21-13: Uncovering Retail Trading in Bitcoin: The Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Checks

Anantha Divakaruni and Peter Zimmerman

21-12R: Censored Density Forecasts: Production and Evaluation

James Mitchell and Martin Weale

21-11r: Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era

Bernardo Candia and Mathieu Pedemonte

21-10: Is It Time to Reassess the Focal Role of Core PCE Inflation?

Randal Verbrugge

21-09: Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino and Elmar Mertens

21-08R: Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

Todd Clark, Florian Huber, Gary Koop, Massimiliano Marcellino and Michael Pfarrhofer

21-07: Municipal Markets and the Municipal Liquidity Facility

John Bagley, Nicholas Fritsch and Shawn Nee

21-06: All Forecasters Are Not the Same: Time-Varying Predictive Ability across Forecast Environments

Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

21-05: Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy

Yasuo Hirose, Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

21-04R: Applications of Markov Chain Approximation Methods to Optimal Control Problems in Economics

Keyvan Eslami and Thomas Phelan

21-03: Location, Location, Structure Type: Rent Divergence within Neighborhoods

Brian Adams and Randal Verbrugge

21-02R: Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino and Elmar Mertens

21-01: Employer Wage Subsidy Caps and Part-Time Work

Joel Elvery, Curtis Reynolds and Shawn M. Rohlin

20-37: Neighborhood Sorting Obscures Neighborhood Effects in the Opportunity Atlas

Dionissi Aliprantis and Hal Martin

20-36R: What Determines the Success of Housing Mobility Programs?

Dionissi Aliprantis, Hal Martin and Kristen Tauber

20-35: Macroeconomic Changes with Declining Trend Inflation: Complementarity with the Superstar Firm Hypothesis

Takushi Kurozumi and Willem Van Zandweghe

20-34: Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?

Joseph Haubrich

20-33: Even Keel and the Great Inflation

Victoria Consolvo, Owen Humpage and Sanchita Mukherjee

20-32R: Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino and Elmar Mertens