A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)

Valerie Grossman, Adrienne Mack and Enrique Martínez García ()

No 169, Globalization Institute Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is aimed at standardizing and disseminating world economic indicators for the study of globalization. It includes a core sample of 40 countries with available indicators and broad coverage for quarterly real GDP, and the monthly series of industrial production (IP), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), merchandise exports and imports, headline CPI, CPI (ex. food and energy), PPI/WPI inflation, nominal and real exchange rates, and official/policy interest rates (see Grossman, Mack, and Martnez-Garca (2013)). This paper aims to codify in a systematic way the chronology of global business cycles for DGEI. We propose a novel chronology based on IP data for a sample of 84 countries at a monthly frequency from 1980 until now, and assess the turning points obtained as a signal of the underlying state of the economy as tracked by the indicators of DGEI. We conclude by proposing and also evaluating global recession probability forecasts up to 12 months ahead. The logit model proposed uses the DGEI aggregate indicators to offer advanced warning of turning point in the global cycle?by this metric a global downturn in 2013 does not appear likely.

JEL-codes: C14 C82 E32 E65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2014-01-31
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac and nep-sog
Note: Published as: Valerie Grossman, Adrienne Mack and Enrique Martínez-García (2015), "A Contribution to the Chronology of Turning Points in Global Economic Activity (1980–2012)," Journal of Macroeconomics 46: 170-185.
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Journal Article: A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012) (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddgw:169

DOI: 10.24149/gwp169

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