Globalization Institute Working Papers

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424: Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis

Stephen J. Cole, Enrique Martinez-Garcia and Eric Sims

423: Mean Group Distributed Lag Estimation of Impulse Response Functions in Large Panels

Chi-Young Choi and Alexander Chudik

422: A Theory of Capital Flow Retrenchment

Jonathan Davis and Eric Van Wincoop

421: On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Novel Asset Market Monitoring Tools for Building Economic Resilience and Mitigating Financial Risks

Lauren Spits, Valerie Grossman and Enrique Martinez-Garcia

420: A Theory of Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle

Jonathan Davis and Eric Van Wincoop

419: Commodity Exports, Financial Frictions and International Spillovers

Romain Houssa, Jolan Mohimont and Christopher Otrok

418: Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study

Roberto Duncan, Enrique Martinez-Garcia and Patricia Toledo

417: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?

Jarod Coulter, Roberto Duncan and Enrique Martinez-Garcia

416: The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flows During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jonathan Davis and Andrei Zlate

415: Revisiting the Great Ratios Hypothesis

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Ronald Smith

414: Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci

413: On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs

Daniel Carroll and Sewon Hur

412: Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound

Rachel Doehr and Enrique Martinez-Garcia

411: Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth

Jose Asturias, Sewon Hur, Timothy Kehoe and Kim Ruhl

410: A Theory of Gross and Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle

Jonathan Davis and Eric Van Wincoop

409: Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Ronald Smith

408: COVID-19 Fiscal Support and Its Effectiveness

Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

407: COVID-19 Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci

406: Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

Sewon Hur, Cesar Sosa-Padilla and Zeynep Yom

405: Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention

Jonathan Davis, Michael Devereux and Changhua Yu

404: Trade Integration, Global Value Chains and Capital Accumulation

Michael Sposi, Kei-Mu Yi and Jing Zhang

403: Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest

Enrique Martinez-Garcia

402: A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of COVID-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model

Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mohammad Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi and Alessandro Rebucci

401: Land Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Imperfect Substitution in Real Estate Markets

Jonathan Davis, Kevin Huang and Ayse Sapci

400: The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Optimal Mitigation Policies

Sewon Hur

399: Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis

Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, Enrique Martinez-Garcia and Christopher Neely

398: How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices? – Evidence from U.S. Cities

Chi-Young Choi and Soojin Jo

397: Liquidity Traps in a Monetary Union

Robert Kollmann

396: A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints

Ayşe Kabukçuoğlu Dur and Enrique Martinez-Garcia

395: BGVAR: Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions with Shrinkage Priors in R

Maximilian Böck, Martin Feldkircher and Florian Huber

394: Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Mahrad Sharifvaghefi

393: Exporting and Pollution Abatement Expenditure: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Soumendra N. Banerjee, Jayjit Roy and Mahmut Yasar

392: Mind the Gap!—A Monetarist View of the Open-Economy Phillips Curve

Ayşe Kabukçuoğlu Dur and Enrique Martinez-Garcia

391: Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Tax Rate Changes

Saroj Bhattarai, Jae Won Lee, Woong Yong Park and Choongryul Yang

390: Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism

Jonathan Benchimol and Makram El-Shagi

389: A Matter of Perspective: Mapping Linear Rational Expectations Models into Finite-Order VAR Form

Enrique Martinez-Garcia

388: Non-Gravity Trade

Markus Brueckner, Ngo Long and Joaquin Vespignani

387: Reserves and Risk: Evidence from China

Rasmus Fatum, Takahiro Hattori and Yohei Yamamoto

386: Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy

Jonathan Benchimol and Sergey Ivashchenko

385: The Moderating Role of Green Energy and Energy-Innovation in Environmental Kuznets: Insights from Quantile-Quantile Analysis

Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau, Rabindra Nepal, Joaquin Vespignani and Maria Yanotti

384: Checking the Path Towards Recovery from the COVID-19 Isolation Response

Finn Kydland and Enrique Martinez-Garcia

383: exuber: Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing with R

Enrique Martinez-Garcia, Efthymios Pavlidis and Kostas Vasilopoulos

382: Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci

381: Cryptocurrency Market Reactions to Regulatory News

Raphael Auer and Stijn Claessens

380: Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations

Charles Leung, Joe Cho Yiu Ng and Edward Tang

379: Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach

Lian An, Mark Wynne and Ren Zhang

378: Rational Bubbles in Non-Linear Business Cycle Models: Closed and Open Economies

Robert Kollmann

377: Quantifying Risks to Sovereign Market Access: Methods and Challenges

Aitor Erce, Xu Jiang and Diana Zigraiova

376: Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

Davide Ferrari, Francesco Ravazzolo and Joaquin Vespignani

375: The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

Stephen Cole and Enrique Martinez-Garcia