Globalization Institute Working Papers

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430: The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound

Enrique Martínez García and Yixiang Zhang

429: Xtpb: The Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels

Priyanka Asnani, Alexander Chudik and Braden Strackman

428: Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization

Michael Sposi, Kei-Mu Yi and Jing Zhang

427: Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World

Elisa Belfiori, Daniel Carroll and Sewon Hur

426: Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply

Chi-Young Choi, Alexander Chudik and Aaron Smallwood

425: Exchange Rate Determination Under Limits to CIP Arbitrage

Philippe Bacchetta, Jonathan Davis and Eric Van Wincoop

424: Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis

Stephen Cole, Enrique Martínez García and Eric Sims

423: Mean Group Distributed Lag Estimation of Impulse Response Functions in Large Panels

Chi-Young Choi and Alexander Chudik

422: A Theory of Capital Flow Retrenchment

Jonathan Davis and Eric Van Wincoop

421: On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Novel Asset Market Monitoring Tools for Building Economic Resilience and Mitigating Financial Risks

Lauren Spits, Valerie Grossman and Enrique Martínez García

420: A Theory of Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle

Jonathan Davis and Eric Van Wincoop

419: Commodity Exports, Financial Frictions and International Spillovers

Romain Houssa, Jolan Mohimont and Christopher Otrok

418: Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study

Roberto Duncan, Enrique Martínez García and Patricia Toledo

417: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?

Jarod Coulter, Roberto Duncan and Enrique Martínez García

416: The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flows During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jonathan Davis and Andrei Zlate

415: Revisiting the Great Ratios Hypothesis

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Ronald Smith

414: Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci

413: On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs

Daniel Carroll and Sewon Hur

412: Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound

Rachel Doehr and Enrique Martínez García

411: Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth

Jose Asturias, Sewon Hur, Timothy Kehoe and Kim Ruhl

410: A Theory of Gross and Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle

Jonathan Davis and Eric Van Wincoop

409: Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long-Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogenous Panels

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Ronald Smith

408: COVID-19 Fiscal Support and Its Effectiveness

Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi

407: COVID-19 Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci

406: Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

Sewon Hur, Cesar Sosa-Padilla and Zeynep Yom

405: Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: The Role of World Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention

Jonathan Davis, Michael Devereux and Changhua Yu

404: Trade Integration, Global Value Chains and Capital Accumulation

Michael Sposi, Kei-Mu Yi and Jing Zhang

403: Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest

Enrique Martínez García

402: A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of COVID-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model

Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mohammad Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi and Alessandro Rebucci

401: Land Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Imperfect Substitution in Real Estate Markets

Jonathan Davis, Kevin Huang and Ayse Sapci

400: The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Optimal Mitigation Policies

Sewon Hur

399: Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis

Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, Enrique Martínez García and Christopher Neely

398: How Do Housing Markets Affect Local Consumer Prices? – Evidence from U.S. Cities

Chi-Young Choi and Soojin Jo

397: Liquidity Traps in a Monetary Union

Robert Kollmann

396: A Generalized Time Iteration Method for Solving Dynamic Optimization Problems with Occasionally Binding Constraints

Ayşe Kabukçuoğlu Dur and Enrique Martínez García

395: BGVAR: Bayesian Global Vector Autoregressions with Shrinkage Priors in R

Maximilian Böck, Martin Feldkircher and Florian Huber

394: Variable Selection in High Dimensional Linear Regressions with Parameter Instability

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Mahrad Sharifvaghefi

393: Exporting and Pollution Abatement Expenditure: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Soumendra N. Banerjee, Jayjit Roy and Mahmut Yasar

392: Mind the Gap!—A Monetarist View of the Open-Economy Phillips Curve

Ayşe Kabukçuoğlu Dur and Enrique Martínez García

391: Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Tax Rate Changes

Saroj Bhattarai, Jae Won Lee, Woong Yong Park and Choongryul Yang

390: Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism

Jonathan Benchimol and Makram El-Shagi

389: A Matter of Perspective: Mapping Linear Rational Expectations Models into Finite-Order VAR Form

Enrique Martínez García

388: Non-Gravity Trade

Markus Brueckner, Ngo Long and Joaquin Vespignani

387: Reserves and Risk: Evidence from China

Rasmus Fatum, Takahiro Hattori and Yohei Yamamoto

386: Switching Volatility in a Nonlinear Open Economy

Jonathan Benchimol and Sergey Ivashchenko

385: The Moderating Role of Green Energy and Energy-Innovation in Environmental Kuznets: Insights from Quantile-Quantile Analysis

Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau, Rabindra Nepal, Joaquin Vespignani and Maria Yanotti

384: Checking the Path Towards Recovery from the COVID-19 Isolation Response

Finn Kydland and Enrique Martínez García

383: exuber: Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing with R

Enrique Martínez García, Efthymios Pavlidis and Kostas Vasilopoulos

382: Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries

Alexander Chudik, Mohammad Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci

381: Cryptocurrency Market Reactions to Regulatory News

Raphael Auer and Stijn Claessens