Globalization Institute Working Papers

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380: Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations

Charles Leung, Joe Cho Yiu Ng and Edward Tang

379: Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence Based on a Narrative Sign Approach

Lian An, Mark Wynne and Ren Zhang

378: Rational Bubbles in Non-Linear Business Cycle Models: Closed and Open Economies

Robert Kollmann

377: Quantifying Risks to Sovereign Market Access: Methods and Challenges

Aitor Erce, Xu Jiang and Diana Zigraiova

376: Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices: A Large Global Dataset Sparse Approach

Davide Ferrari, Francesco Ravazzolo and Joaquin Vespignani

375: The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

Stephen Cole and Enrique Martínez García

374: The Growth Effects of El Niño and La Niña: Local Weather Conditions Matter

Cécile Couharde, Olivier Damette, Rémi Generoso and Kamiar Mohaddes

373: Technology Choice and the Long- and Short-Run Armington Elasticity

Dudley Cooke

372: Generational War on Inflation: Optimal Inflation Rates for the Young and the Old

Ippei Fujiwara, Shunsuke Hori and Yuichiro Waki

371: Embedded Supervision: How to Build Regulation into Blockchain Finance

Raphael Auer

370: Oil Curse, Economic Growth and Trade Openness

Monoj Kumar Majumder, Mala Raghavan and Joaquin Vespignani

369: Drilling Down: The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Housing Prices

Valerie Grossman, Enrique Martínez García, Yongzhi Sun and Luis Torres

368: Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation

Georgios Georgiadis and Ben Schumann

367: Risk Management for Sovereign Debt Financing with Sustainability Conditions

Marialena Athanasopoulou, Andrea Consiglio, Aitor Erce, Angel Gavilan, Edmund Moshammer and Stavros Zenios

366: Identifying News Shocks with Forecast Data

Yasuo Hirose and Takushi Kurozumi

365: Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

Bryan Engelhardt, Matthew Kahn, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mohammad Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi and Jui-Chung Yang

364: Time-Varying Money Demand and Real Balance Effects

Jonathan Benchimol and Irfan Qureshi

363: Monetary Policy Spillovers, Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Financial Channel of Exchange Rates

Georgios Georgiadis and Feng Zhu

362: Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Estimates Across Time and Space

Christoph Fischer

361: Adverse Selection, Lemons Shocks and Business Cycles

Daisuke Ikeda

360: Upstream, Downstream & Common Firm Shocks

Everett Grant and Julieta Yung

359: Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies

Valerie Grossman, Enrique Martínez García, Mark Wynne and Ren Zhang

358: Capital Controls as Macro-prudential Policy in a Large Open Economy

Jonathan Davis and Michael Devereux

357: Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows

Jonathan Davis, Giorgio Valente and Eric van Wincoop

356: Estimation of Impulse Response Functions When Shocks are Observed at a Higher Frequency than Outcome Variables

Alexander Chudik and Georgios Georgiadis

355: Beyond the Doomsday Economics of “Proof-of-Work” in Cryptocurrencies

Raphael Auer

354: Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields

Rasmus Fatum, Naoko Hara and Yohei Yamamoto

353: Estimating Impulse Response Functions When the Shock Series Is Observed

Chi-Young Choi and Alexander Chudik

352: Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Tool for Capital Account Management

Jonathan Davis, Ippei Fujiwara, Kevin Huang and Jiao Wang

351: Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR

Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes and Mohammad Pesaran

350: Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates

Luca Dedola, Georgios Georgiadis, Johannes Gräb and Arnaud Mehl

349: Mean Group Estimation in Presence of Weakly Cross-Correlated Estimators

Alexander Chudik and Mohammad Pesaran

348: Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective

Enrique Martínez García

347: Slow Post-Financial Crisis Recovery and Monetary Policy

Daisuke Ikeda and Takushi Kurozumi

346: Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Arab Economies: Policy Proposals

Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey Nugent and Hoda Selim

345: Current Account Adjustment and Retained Earnings

Andreas Fischer, Henrike Groeger, Philip Sauré and Pinar Yesin

344: Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

Massimo Giovannini, Stefan Hohberger, Robert Kollmann, Marco Ratto, Werner Roeger and Lukas Vogel

343: The Heterogeneous Effects of Global and National Business Cycles on Employment in U.S. States and Metropolitan Areas

Alexander Chudik, Janet Koech and Mark Wynne

342: Explosive Dynamics in House Prices? An Exploration of Financial Market Spillovers in Housing Markets Around the World

Valerie Grossman and Enrique Martínez García

341: Gains from Trade: Does Sectoral Heterogeneity Matter?

Rahul Giri, Kei-Mu Yi and Hakan Yilmazkuday

340: Macro Aspects of Housing

Charles Leung and Joe Cho Yiu Ng

339: Official Debt Restructurings and Development

Gong Cheng, Javier Díaz-Cassou and Aitor Erce

338: New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment

Roberto Duncan and Enrique Martínez García

337: Product Turnover and the Cost of Living Index: Quality vs. Fashion Effects

Kozo Ueda, Kota Watanabe and Tsutomu Watanabe

336: Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

Jonathan Benchimol and Lahcen Bounader

335: Current Account Dynamics under Information Rigidity and Imperfect Capital Mobility

Akihisa Shibata, Mototsugu Shintani and Takayuki Tsuruga

334: Can Trend Inflation Solve the Delayed Overshooting Puzzle?

Dudley Cooke and Engin Kara

333: Structural Change and Global Trade

Logan Lewis, Ryan Monarch, Michael Sposi and Jing Zhang

332: Demographics and the Evolution of Global Imbalances

Michael Sposi

331: Global Spillover Effects of US Uncertainty

Saroj Bhattarai, Arpita Chatterjee and Woong Yong Park