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Structural Change and Global Trade

Logan Lewis (), Ryan Monarch, Michael Sposi () and Jing Zhang ()

No 333, Globalization Institute Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 58 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 79 percent in 2015. In a trade model featuring nonhomothetic preferences and input-output linkages, we find that such structural change has restrained the growth in world trade to GDP by 16 percentage points over this period. This magnitude is similar to how much declining trade costs have boosted openness. Moreover, structural change dampens the measured gains from trade by incorporating endogenous responses of expenditure shares to the trade regime. Ongoing structural change implies declining openness, even absent rising protectionism.

Keywords: Globalization; structural change; international trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F41 L16 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2018-01-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-tid
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https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/institute/wpapers/2018/0333r1.pdf Revision 1 (application/pdf)
https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/institute/wpapers/2018/0333.pdf Original paper (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Structural Change and Global Trade (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Structural Change and Global Trade (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Structural Change and Global Trade (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Structural Change and Global Trade (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Structural Change and Slowdown of International Trade (2017) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddgw:333

DOI: 10.24149/gwp333r2

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