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Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel

Itamar Caspi ()

No 246, Globalization Institute Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: Between 2008 and 2013, home prices in Israel appreciated by roughly 50 percent in real terms, with increases of nearly 60 percent in some regions. This paper examines whether this phenomenon reflects the presence of a national or regional housing bubble by applying econometric tests for explosive behavior to quality adjusted national and regional level data on the home price to rent ratio, while controlling for various fundamental factors, including interest rates, income and the leverage ratio. Overall, study results indicate that the recent housing price appreciations at the national and regional levels are consistent with the developments of the fundamentals ? supply and demand factors that are represented by rent payments and interest rates ? and not with a housing bubble scenario. Most of the results are robust to a variety of tests and alternate specifications. The framework I provide to study the Israeli case may be applied to study other housing markets facing similar developments.

JEL-codes: C22 G12 R21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2015-08-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
Note: Published as: Caspi, Itamar (2016), "Testing for a Housing Bubble at the National and Regional Level: The Case of Israel," Empirical Economics 51 (2): 483-516.
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:feddgw:246

DOI: 10.24149/gwp246

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