How well does the Beige Book reflect economic activity? Evaluating qualitative information quantitatively

Nathan Balke and D'Ann Petersen

No 9802, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: Eight times a year, approximately two weeks before every FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve releases a description of economic conditions in the twelve Federal Reserve districts. Called the Beige Book, this description relies primarily on surveys and anecdotal evidence gathered by the twelve district banks. In this paper, we read and numerically scored past Beige Books in order to determine the extent to which the descriptions in these books accurately reflect current economic activity as measured by quarterly real GDP growth. We find that both in-sample and out-sample, the quantitative Beige Book indices do have significant predictive content for current and next quarter real GDP growth. Furthermore, the Beige Book has information about current quarter real GDP growth not present in other indicators such as the Blue Chip Consensus Forecast or time series models that use real-time data.

Pages: 28 pages
Date: 1998
Note: Published as: Nathan S. Balke and D'Ann Petersen (2002), "How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 34 (1): 114-136.
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