Liberalized portfolio capital inflows in emerging markets: sterilization, expectations and the incompleteness of interest rate convergence

Jeffrey Frankel and Chudozie Okongwu

No 95-04, Pacific Basin Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: The paper examines interest rates in nine Latin American and East Asian countries during the period 1987-1994. The goal is to discover why interest rates have remained high, failing to converge to U.S. levels, despite capital market liberalization and a resurgence of portfolio capital inflows during the second half of this sample period. Related questions are whether portfolio capital flows are strong enough to equalize expected returns between these \"emerging markets\" and the U.S., and whether there is any scope left for the authorities to sterilize inflows. The conclusion of the study is that the largest single component of the gap in interest rates is expectations of depreciation of the local currencies against the dollar. Key to the analysis is the use of survey data on exchange rate forecasts by market participants. Indicative of integrated financial markets, we also find a big effect of U.S. interest rates on local interest rates, and a highly significant degree of capital flow offset to monetary policy.

Keywords: Interest rates; East Asia; Latin America; Capital movements; Monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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Published in International Journal of Finance and Economics, January 1996, v. 1, iss. 1, pp. 1-23

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Related works:
Journal Article: Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence (1996)
Working Paper: Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence (1995)
Working Paper: Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence (1995)
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