EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates among the Non-Employed Using Labor Force Status Histories

Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange ()

No 2017-20, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: We introduce a novel approach to studying heterogeneity in job finding rates by classifying the non-employed, the unemployed and those out of the labor force (OLF), according to their labor force status (LFS) histories using four-month panels in the CPS. Respondents? LFS histories outperform current-month responses to survey questions about duration and reason for unemployment, desire to work, or reasons for not searching in predicting future employment. We find that the best predictor of future employment for the non-employed is their duration since last employment. For those OLF, the duration since last employment is only available via LFS histories and cannot be inferred from current-month responses. Those who were recently employed are twice as likely to find a job as those who report wanting a job. For the unemployed, the duration since last employment is a better predictor of future employment than the self-reported duration of unemployment is, as the two duration measures often disagree. The disagreement is not caused by classification error but rather arises because self-reported durations reflect individuals? in short-term jobs either temporarily suspending their search or continuing search while working. Recent employment breaks negative duration dependence in unemployment exits and the unemployed who report long durations after recent employment have similar job finding rates as those who report short durations. Using our proposed approach, we reexamine the unemployment duration distribution and current approach to misclassification error in the CPS.

JEL-codes: J41 J63 J30 E24 J64 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 68 pages
Date: 2017-09-26, Revised 2017-09-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab and nep-mac
Note: This Draft: September 19th, 2017. First Draft: May 20th, 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2017-20.pdf Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates among the Nonemployed Using Labor Force Status Histories (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Nonemployed Using Labor Force Status Histories (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Measuring Heterogeneity in Job Finding Rates Among the Nonemployed Using Labor Force Status Histories (2014) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2017-20

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

DOI: 10.24148/wp2017-20

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library ().

 
Page updated 2020-04-01
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2017-20