Precautionary Pricing: The Disinflationary Effects of ELB Risk

Robert Amano, Thomas Carter and Sylvain Leduc

No 2019-26, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: We construct a model to evaluate the role that the risk of future effective lower bound (ELB) episodes plays as a factor behind the persistently weak inflation witnessed in many advanced economies since the Great Recession. In our model, a range of precautionary channels cause ELB risk to affect inflation and other macroeconomic outcomes even during ?normal times? when nominal rates are far away from the ELB. This behavior is enhanced through a growth channel that captures possible long-lasting output declines at the ELB. We show that ELB risk substantially weighs on inflation even when the policy rate is above the ELB. Our model also predicts substantially below-target inflation expectations and negative inflation risk premia.

Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2019-10-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2019-26

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DOI: 10.24148/wp2019-26

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