Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets

Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz () and Jonathan Wright
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Anthony M. Diercks: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/anthony-m-diercks.htm

No 2026-010, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Prediction markets offer a new market-based approach to measuring macroeconomic expectations in real-time. We evaluate the accuracy of prediction market-implied forecasts from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market overseen by the CFTC. We compare Kalshi with more traditional survey and market-implied forecasts, examine how expectations respond to macroeconomic and financial news, and how policy signals are interpreted by market participants. Our results suggest that Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.

Keywords: Forecasts; Monetary policy; Information economics; Inflation expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C50 E30 G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 p.
Date: 2026-02-18
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Working Paper: Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets (2026)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfe:102839

DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2026.010

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