Finance and Economics Discussion Series

From Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Contact information at EDIRC.
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2026-038: The Role of Inflation Perceptions in Consumer Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Euro Area

Matthieu Bussiere, Johanna Gilbert and Olesya Grishchenko

2026-037: The Fragility of Perfectly Safe Digital Money

Elizabeth Klee, Arazi Lubis, Chase Ross, Sharon Y. Ross and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2026-036: Double Inertia, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Gradualism

Edmund Crawley, William Goodwin, Margaret Jacobson and Fabian Winkler

2026-035: Paying More and Buying Less: 2025 Tariffs and U.S. Household Spending

Leo Feler and Sinem Hacioglu Hoke

2026-034: Financial Liberalizations, Booms, and Crashes

Maximilian Grimm, Moritz Schularick and Emil Verner

2026-033: Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation

Edward Herbst, Scott R. Konzem and Cristina Scofield

2026-032: Skill and Efficiency in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry

Dong Hwan Oh and Andrew Patton

2026-031: The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates

Abhik Bhatt, Anthony M. Diercks, Benjamin Eyal and Arsenios Skaperdas

2026-030: Bank Regulation and the Rise of Nonbank Intermediation

Celso Brunetti and Christoph Frei

2026-029: The Fed's Fine-Tune: Coarse Statements and Predictive Pressers

Ryan Byun, Bennett Fees, Margaret Jacobson and Todd Walker

2026-028: A Tale of Demand and Supply for Central Bank Reserves

Sriya Anbil, Sebastian Infante and Zeynep Senyuz

2026-027: Does Banking Consolidation Harm Households?

Celso Brunetti, Jeffrey Harris and Ioannis Spyridopoulos

2026-026: Anchored to the Dot Plot: Central Bank Projections and Interest Rate Expectations

Eric Engstrom

2026-025: Pretend or Amend? On Evergreening in CRE

David Glancy

2026-024: Financial Well-being and Inclusion of Justice Involved Populations: Evidence from the SHED

Kabir Dasgupta, Jennifer Fernandez and Alicia Lloro

2026-023: The Effect of the Federal Reserve on the Stock Market: Magnitudes, Channels and Shocks

Benjamin Knox and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

2026-022: Price-Segmented Beliefs and the U.S. Housing Boom

Margaret Jacobson

2026-021: Monetary Policy under Multiple Financing Constraints

Ander Pérez-Orive, Yannick Timmer and Alejandro Van der Ghote

2026-020: Validating Large Language Model Annotations

Anne Lundgaard Hansen

2026-019: A User’s Guide to Reducing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet

Alyssa G. Anderson, Alessandro Barbarino, Anthony M. Diercks and Stephen I. Miran

2026-018: AI and Coder Employment: Compiling the Evidence

Leland Crane and Paul E. Soto

2026-017: Queuing, Service Time, and Price Dynamics in Residential Mortgage Lending

Akos Horvath and Benjamin S. Kay

2026-016: Model Uncertainty and the Pricing of Hurricane Risk in Florida

Erik Heitfield

2026-015: Income Mobility of the Top One Percent

Jeff Larrimore and David Splinter

2026-014: The Practice of U.S. Monetary Policy Independence from Martin to Greenspan

Edward Nelson

2026-013: Disruptions to Foreign Trade and U.S. Banks’ Returns

Thiago Revil T. Ferreira, Michele Modugno, Berardino Palazzo and Carlos Ramírez

2026-012: Enforcing Fair Lending: Evidence from Mortgage Market Litigation

Matthew Maury, Michael Suher and Jeffery Y. Zhang

2026-011: Contrasting Ledgers: Considerations for U.S. Dollar Interbank Payment Systems

Melissa Leistra

2026-010: Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets

Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz and Jonathan Wright

2026-009: Initial Margin for Crypto Currencies Risks in Uncleared Markets

Anna Amirdjanova, David Lynch and Anni Zheng

2026-008: Monetary Policy Exposure of Banks and Loan Contracting

Ahmet Degerli and Jing Wang

2026-007: Inequality in Comprehensive Wealth

Hannah Landel, David Love and Paul A. Smith

2026-006: What Do LLMs Want?

Thomas Cook, Sophia Kazinnik, Zach Modig and Nathan Palmer

2026-005: The Spillovers of LSAPs on Banks in the Euro Area

Marco Graziano, Marius Koechlin and Andreas Tischbirek

2026-004: Do Anecdotes Matter? Exploring the Beige Book through Textual Analysis from 1970 to 2025

Shengwu Du, Flora Haberkorn, Isabel Kitschelt, Seung Jung Lee, Anderson Monken, Dylan Saez, Kelsey Shipman and Sandeep Thakur

2026-003: Firm Dynamics, Inflation, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

William L. Gamber

2026-002: A Framework for Understanding the Vulnerabilities of New Money-Like Products

Kenechukwu Anadu, Patrick E. McCabe, Jp Perez-Sangimino and Nathan Swem

2026-001: A New Reason to Hate Grocery Inflation: Measuring and Interpreting Inflation Heterogeneity

Kelsey O'Flaherty

2025-110: The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Labor Supply: Evidence from Interest Rate Ceilings

Kabir Dasgupta and Brenden Mason

2025-109: Estimating Aggregate Data Center Investment with Project-level Data

Eirik E. Brandsaas, Daniel Garcia, Robert Kurtzman, Joseph B. Nichols and Adelia Zytek

2025-108: LLM on a Budget: Active Knowledge Distillation for Efficient Classification of Large Text Corpora

Leland Crane, Xiaoyu Ge, Flora Haberkorn, Rithika Iyengar, Seung Jung Lee, Viviana Luccioli, Ryan Panley and Nitish R. Sinha

2025-107: Rates of return on private and public businesses

Jesse Bricker, Alice Henriques Volz and Kevin B. Moore

2025-106: Funds of Funds' Portfolio Rebalancing during the COVID-19 Crisis

Nathan Foley-Fisher and Jeongmin Lee

2025-104: Artificial Intelligence Innovation by Financial Innovators: Evidence from US Patents

Jean Xiao Timmerman

2025-103: Cyber Vulnerabilities at Large US Financial Institutions and Their Third-Party Service Providers

Jin-Wook Chang, Jacob Dice, Shengwu Du, Adam Flury, Sam Jerow, Seung Jung Lee, Stacey Schreft and Craig Vandre

2025-102: Access to Capital and the IPO Decision: An Analysis of US Private Firms

Andres Almazan, Nathan Swem, Sheridan Titman and Gregory Weitzner

2025-101r1: Settlement Speed and Financial Stability

Agostino Capponi and Jin-Wook Chang

2025-100: Central Bank Access and Flight to Safety

Lucia Gurrieri, Chase P. Ross, Ben Schmiedt, Alexandros Vardoulakis and Vladimir Yankov

2025-099: The Federal Reserve’s Response to the 2023 Banking Turmoil: The Bank Term Funding Program

David Arseneau, Elizabeth Klee, Antonis Kotidis and Michael Siemer

2025-098: Declining Search Frictions, Unemployment, and Growth Revisited

Juan C. Córdoba, Anni T. Isojärvi and Haoran Li

2025-097: Do the Rich Really Save More? Answering an Old Question Using the SCF with Direct Measures of Lifetime Earnings and an Expanded Wealth Concept

Alice Henriques Volz, Elizabeth Llanes and Jeffrey Thompson

2025-096: Understanding Preferences for Payment Cards using Household Scanner Data

Marc Rysman, Shuang Wang and Krzysztof Wozniak

2025-095: Decomposing Recent Employment Gains Among Disabled Workers

Hsinyu (Samuel) Tseng and Douglas Webber

2025-094: Illiquid Homeownership and the Bank of Mom and Dad

Eirik E. Brandsaas

2025-093: “Harvest Now Decrypt Later”: Examining Post-Quantum Cryptography and the Data Privacy Risks for Distributed Ledger Networks

Jillian Mascelli and Megan Rodden

2025-092: Can LLMs Improve Sanctions Screening in the Financial System? Evidence from a Fuzzy Matching Assessment

Jeffrey S. Allen and Max S. Hatfield

2025-091: Parallel Trends Forest: Data-Driven Control Sample Selection in Difference-in-Differences

Yesol Huh and Matthew Kling

2025-090: Financial Stability Implications of Generative AI: Taming the Animal Spirits

Seung Jung Lee and Anne Lundgaard Hansen

2025-089: Virtue or Mirage? Complexity in Exchange Rate Prediction

Rehim Kılıç

2025-088: Automated Credit Limit Increases and Consumer Welfare

Vitaly M. Bord, Agnes Kovacs and Patrick Moran

2025-087: One Policy Rate, Many Stances: Evidence from the European Monetary Union

Manuel González-Astudillo and Diego Vilán

2025-086: Where's The Bank? Banking Access in the Era of Branch Consolidation

Robert M. Adams and Shane Sherlund

2025-085: Non-homothetic Demand Shifts and Inflation Inequality

Jake D. Orchard

2025-084: Attention-Dependent Monetary Transmission to Household Beliefs

Jaemin Jeong, Eunseong Ma and Choongryul Yang

2025-083: Monetary Policy and Bank Funding Costs: Patterns and Predictability in the Transmission of the Policy Rate to U.S. Banks’ Funding Costs

Daniel Dias and Sophia Scott

2025-082r1: Does Financial Stress Affect Commodity Futures Traders’ Positions?

Shengwu Du, Yang Heppe and Travis Nesmith

2025-081: Do Banks Price Flood Risk in Mortgage Origination: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in New Orleans

David Arseneau and Gazi Kara

2025-080: Financial Structure and Mergers

Charles Taragin, Benjamin Wallace and Eddie Watkins

2025-079: Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter

Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairo and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

2025-078: Pricing Tail Risks: Bank Equity Returns During the 2023 Bank Stress

Shawn Kimble and Matthew P. Seay

2025-077: Central bank preparedness for market-functioning asset purchases as a consideration for long-run balance sheet composition

Rochelle Edge and Dan Li

2025-076: Local Estimation for Option Pricing: Improving Forecasts with Market State Information

Hyung Joo Kim and Dong Hwan Oh

2025-075: When Tails Are Heavy: The Benefits of Variance-Targeted, Non-Gaussian, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of GARCH Models

Todd Prono

2025-074: Monetary Policy, Uncertainty, and Communications

Vaishali Garga, Edward Herbst, Alisdair McKay, Giovanni Nicolo and Matthias Paustian

2025-073: Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy

Michael Bauer, Travis Berge, Giuseppe Fiori, Francesca Loria and Molin Zhong

2025-072: Implications of Inflation Dynamics for Monetary Policy Strategies

Hess Chung, Callum Jones, Antoine Lepetit and Fernando M. Martin

2025-071: Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience

Anna Lipinska, Enrique Martínez García and Felipe Schwartzman

2025-070: Inflation since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges

Ina Hajdini, Adam Shapiro, Andrew Lee Smith and Daniel Villar Vallenas

2025-069: Retrospective on the Federal Reserve Board Staff's Inflation Forecast Errors since 2019

Ekaterina V. Peneva, Jeremy B. Rudd and Daniel Villar Vallenas

2025-068: Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employment

Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairo and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

2025-067: Assessing Maximum Employment

Christopher Foote, Shigeru Fujita, Amanda Michaud and Joshua Montes

2025-066: Reviews of Foreign Central Banks' Monetary Policy Frameworks: Approaches, Issues, and Outcomes

Grey Gordon, Julio L. Ortiz and Benjamin Silk

2025-065: The Origins, Structure, and Results of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 Review of Its Monetary Policy Framework

Francois Gourio, Benjamin K. Johannsen and David Lopez-Salido

2025-064: The Banking Panic in New Mexico in 1924 and the Response of the Federal Reserve

Mark Carlson

2025-063: Policy Rate Uncertainty and Money Market Funds (MMF) Portfolio Allocations

Samin Abdullah and Manjola Tase

2025-062r1: Hysteresis and the Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from U.S. States

Hie Joo Ahn and Yunjong Eo

2025-061: Linear and nonlinear econometric models against machine learning models: realized volatility prediction

Rehim Kılıç

2025-060: Mega Firms and New Technological Trajectories in the U.S

Serguey Braguinsky, Joonkyu Choi, Yuheng Ding, Karam Jo and Seula Kim

2025-059: Indirect Credit Supply: How Bank Lending to Private Credit Shapes Monetary Policy Transmission

Sharjil Haque, Young Soo Jang and Jessie Wang

2025-058: Discussion of "Dynamic Causal Effects in a Nonlinear World: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly''

Edward Herbst and Benjamin K. Johannsen

2025-057: Harmonized Population and Labor Force Statistics

John Coglianese, Seth Murray and Christopher Nekarda

2025-056: Stagflationary Stock Returns

Benjamin Knox and Yannick Timmer

2025-055: From Bank Lending Standards to Bank Credit Conditions: An SVAR Approach

Vihar Dalal, Daniel Dias and Pinar Uysal

2025-054: The Theory of Financial Stability Meets Reality

Nina Boyarchenko, Kinda Hachem and Anya V. Kleymenova

2025-053: Generative AI at the Crossroads: Light Bulb, Dynamo, or Microscope?

Martin Neil Baily, David Byrne, Aidan T. Kane and Paul E. Soto

2025-052: Fed Repo Operations and Dealer Intermediation

Mark Carlson, Zack Saravay and Mary Tian

2025-051: A Distance-based Algorithm for Defining Antitrust Markets

Charles Taragin and Marco Taylhardat

2025-050: Lost in Aggregation: Geographic Mismeasurement of Income and Spending

Jack Chylak, Leo Feler and Sinem Hacioglu Hoke

2025-049: Trading Costs v. Indicative Liquidity in the Off-the-Run Treasury Market

Oleg Sokolinskiy

2025-048: Gauging the Sentiment of Federal Open Market Committee Communications through the Eyes of the Financial Press

Shantanu Banerjee, Paul Cordova, Michiel De Pooter and Olesya Grishchenko