Finance and Economics Discussion Series

From Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
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2024-050r1: (Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves

Hie Joo Ahn and Jeremy B. Rudd

2024-049: Predicting Analysts’ S&P 500 Earnings Forecast Errors and Stock Market Returns using Macroeconomic Data and Nowcasts

Antonio Gil de Rubio Cruz and Steven Sharpe

2024-048: Sexual Orientation and Financial Well-Being in the United States

Christopher Carpenter, Kabir Dasgupta, Zofsha Merchant and Alexander Plum

2024-047: Inflation, Price Dispersion, and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search

Francisca Sara-Zaror

2024-046: CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

2024-045: The 2023 Banking Turmoil and the Bank Term Funding Program

David Glancy, Felicia Ionescu, Elizabeth Klee, Antonis Kotidis, Michael Siemer and Andrei Zlate

2024-044: Trademarks in Banking

Ryuichiro Izumi, Antonis Kotidis and Paul E. Soto

2024-043: The Slope of the Phillips Curve

Francesco Furlanetto and Antoine Lepetit

2024-042: Demand Uncertainty, Selection, and Trade

Erick Sager and Olga Timoshenko

2024-041: Continuity and Change in the Federal Reserve’s Perspective on Price Stability

David Lopez-Salido, Emily J. Markowitz and Edward Nelson

2024-040: Information Friction in OTC Interdealer Markets

Benjamin Gardner and Yesol Huh

2024-039: Reaching for Duration and Leverage in the Treasury Market

Daniel Barth, Robert Kahn, Phillip J. Monin and Oleg Sokolinskiy

2024-038: Income Shocks and Their Transmission into Consumption

Edmund Crawley and Alexandros Theloudis

2024-037: Factor Selection and Structural Breaks

Siddhartha Chib and Simon Smith

2024-036: Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

Damjan Pfajfar and Fabian Winkler

2024-035: Central Banking Post Crises

Michael Kiley and Frederic S. Mishkin

2024-034: Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures

Miguel Acosta, Connor M. Brennan and Margaret Jacobson

2024-033: Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market

Michael Kiley

2024-032: Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

Michael Kiley

2024-031: Are Supply Networks Efficiently Resilient?

Agostino Capponi, Chuan Du and Joseph Stiglitz

2024-030: Evaluating the Effects of Geographic Adjustments on Poverty Measures Using Self-Reported Financial Well-Being Scores

Jeff Larrimore

2024-029: Personal Tax Changes and Financial Well-being: Evidence from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Christine L. Dobridge, Joanne Hsu and Mike Zabek

2024-028: Tale About Inflation Tails

Olesya Grishchenko and Laura Wilcox

2024-027: Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates

Christopher Gust and Arsenios Skaperdas

2024-026: Manufacturing Sentiment: Forecasting Industrial Production with Text Analysis

Tomaz Cajner, Leland Crane, Christopher J. Kurz, Norman J. Morin, Paul E. Soto and Betsy Vrankovich

2024-025: Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions Under Lender Scrutiny

Buhui Qiu and Teng Wang

2024-024: Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection

Ege Aksu, Sidhya Balakrishnan, Eric Bettinger, Jonathan Hartley, Michael Kofoed, Dubravka Ritter and Douglas Webber

2024-023: Does it Pay to Send Multiple Pre-Paid Incentives? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Kate Bachtell, Andrew C. Chang, Joanne Hsu, Eva Ma and Micah Sjoblom

2024-022r1: Assessing the Common Ownership Hypothesis in the US Banking Industry

Jacob P. Gramlich and Serafin J. Grundl

2024-021: Financial Stability Implications of CBDC

Francesca Carapella, Jin-Wook Chang, Sebastian Infante, Melissa Leistra, Arazi Lubis and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2024-020: Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation

Leland Crane, Emily Green, Molly Harnish, Will McClennan, Paul E. Soto, Betsy Vrankovich and Jacob Williams

2024-019: Risk Perception and Loan Underwriting in Securitized Commercial Mortgages

Simon Firestone, Nathan Y. Godin, Akos Horvath and Jacob Sagi

2024-018: Institution, Major, and Firm-Specific Premia: Evidence from Administrative Data

Ben Ost, Weixiang Pan and Douglas Webber

2024-017: A New Measure of Climate Transition Risk Based on Distance to a Global Emission Factor Frontier

Talan Iscan and Benjamin Dennis

2024-016r1: Shovel Ready Projects and Commercial Construction Activity’s Long and Variable Lags

David Glancy, Robert Kurtzman and Lara Loewenstein

2024-015: How Private Equity Fuels Non-Bank Lending

Sharjil Haque, Simon Mayer and Teng Wang

2024-014: Linear Factor Models and the Estimation of Expected Returns

Cisil Sarisoy and Bas Werker

2024-013: In the Driver's Seat: Pandemic Fiscal Stimulus and Light Vehicles

Jack Dunbar, Christopher J. Kurz, Geng Li and Maria D. Tito

2024-012: Parental Employment at the Onset of the Pandemic: Effects of Lockdowns and Government Policies

Kabir Dasgupta, Linda Kirkpatrick and Alexander Plum

2024-011r1: Monetary Policy Shocks: Data or Methods?

Connor M. Brennan, Margaret Jacobson, Christian Matthes and Todd Walker

2024-010: Land development and frictions to housing supply over the business cycle

Hyunseung Oh, Choongryul Yang and Chamna Yoon

2024-009: Reexamining the 'Role of the Community Reinvestment Act in Mortgage Supply and the U.S. Housing Boom'

Kenneth Brevoort

2024-008: Difference-in-Differences in the Marketplace

Robert Minton and Casey Mulligan

2024-007: Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans

Kevin C. Corinth and Jeff Larrimore

2024-006: The Informational Centrality of Banks

Nathan Foley-Fisher, Gary Gorton and Stephane Verani

2024-005: Nonlinear Inflation Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies

Andres Blanco, Corina Boar, Callum Jones and Virgiliu Midrigan

2024-004: What makes a job better? Survey evidence from job changers

Katherine Lim and Mike Zabek

2024-003: Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market

Celso Brunetti, Marc Joëts and Valérie Mignon

2024-002: Government-Sponsored Mortgage Securitization and Financial Crises

Wayne Passmore and Roger Sparks

2024-001: A Field Guide to Monetary Policy Implementation Issues in a New World with CBDC, Stablecoin, and Narrow Banks

James A. Clouse

2023-078: The TCJA and Domestic Corporate Tax Rates

Christine L. Dobridge, Patrick Kennedy, Paul Landefeld and Jacob Mortenson

2023-077: Pre-LBO Credit Market Conditions and Post-LBO Target Behavior

Seung Kwak and Charles Press

2023-076: Debt Flexibility

Rhys Bidder, Nicolas Crouzet, Margaret Jacobson and Michael Siemer

2023-075: Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation

Diego Comin, Robert Johnson and Callum Jones

2023-074: Uncovered interest rate, overshooting, and predictability reversal puzzles in an emerging economy

Rehim Kılıç

2023-073: Borrowing and Spending in the Money: Debt Substitution and the Cash-out Refinance Channel of Monetary Policy

Elliot Anenberg, Tess C. Scharlemann and Eileen van Straelen

2023-072: Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies: Implications for Banking and Financial Stability

Sebastian Infante, Kyungmin Kim, Anna Orlik, André Silva and Robert Tetlow

2023-071: LCR Premium in the Federal Funds Market

Alyssa G. Anderson and Manjola Tase

2023-070: Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant

Manuel González-Astudillo and Rakeen Tanvir

2023-069: Endogenous Labor Supply in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model: Nominal versus Real Rigidities

Isabel Cairo, Hess Chung, Francesco Ferrante, Cristina Fuentes-Albero, Camilo Morales-Jimenez and Damjan Pfajfar

2023-068: The Effects of CBDC on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet

Christopher Gust, Kyungmin Kim and Romina Ruprecht

2023-067: Measuring Interest Rate Risk Management by Financial Institutions

Celso Brunetti, Nathan Foley-Fisher and Stephane Verani

2023-066: Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information

Joakim A. Weill

2023-065: Labor Market Discrimination and the Racial Unemployment Gap: Can Monetary Policy Make a Difference?

Isabel Cairo and Avi Lipton

2023-064: On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates

Aleksander Berentsen, Romina Ruprecht and Hugo van Buggenum

2023-063: Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) Standard and Banks' Information Production

Sehwa Kim, Seil Kim, Anya V. Kleymenova and Rongchen Li

2023-062: A Theory of Safe Asset Creation, Systemic Risk, and Aggregate Demand

Levent Altinoglu

2023-061: The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation

Colin Campbell, Anthony M. Diercks, Steven Sharpe and Daniel Soques

2023-060: Tokenization: Overview and Financial Stability Implications

Francesca Carapella, Grace Chuan, Jacob Gerszten and Nathan Swem

2023-059: Data Privacy for Digital Asset Systems

Jillian Mascelli

2023-058: Are Real Assets Owners Less Averse to Inflation? Evidence from Consumer Sentiments and Inflation Expectations

Geng Li and Nitish R. Sinha

2023-057: An Overview of Personal Loans in the U.S

Jessica N. Flagg and Simona Hannon

2023-056: FinTech and Banks: Strategic Partnerships That Circumvent State Usury Laws

Gregory E. Elliehausen and Simona Hannon

2023-055: Default Clustering Risk Premium and its Cross-Market Asset Pricing Implications

Kiwoong Byun, Baeho Kim and Dong Hwan Oh

2023-054: Options on Interbank Rates and Implied Disaster Risk

Hitesh Doshi, Hyung Joo Kim and Sang Byung Seo

2023-053: The Pricing Kernel in Options

Steven Heston, Kris Jacobs and Hyung Joo Kim

2023-052: Can Measurement Error Explain Slow Productivity Growth in Construction?

Daniel Garcia and Raven S. Molloy

2023-051: Sticky Leverage: Comment

Andrea Ajello, Ander Pérez-Orive and Bálint Szőke

2023-050: Disclosure Regulation, Intangible Capital and the Disappearance of Public Firms

Sara Casella, Hanbaek Lee and Sergio Villalvazo

2023-049: Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks

Camelia Minoiu, Andrés Schneider and Min Wei

2023-048: Your Friends, Your Credit: Social Capital Measures Derived from Social Media and the Credit Market

Jesse Bricker and Geng Li

2023-047: Affording Degree Completion: An Experimental Study of Completion Grants at Accessible Public Universities

Christine Baker-Smith, Kallie Clark, Sara Goldrick-Rab, Christel Perkins, Douglas Webber and Travis T. York

2023-046: Termination of SNAP Emergency Allotments, Food Sufficiency, and Economic Hardships

Kabir Dasgupta and Alexander Plum

2023-045: Aggregate Implications of Deviations from Modigliani-Miller: A Sufficient Statistics Approach

Robert Kurtzman and David Zeke

2023-044: Interconnected DeFi: Ripple Effects from the Terra Collapse

Anton Badev and Cy Watsky

2023-043: College Networks and Re-employment of Displaced Workers

Ben Ost, Weixiang Pan and Douglas Webber

2023-042: A Comprehensive Empirical Evaluation of Biases in Expectation Formation

Kenneth Eva and Fabian Winkler

2023-041: End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns

Michael Smolyansky

2023-040: Finite-State Markov-Chain Approximations: A Hidden Markov Approach

Eva F. Janssens and Sean McCrary

2023-039: The FOMC's Use of Operational Targets: 85 Years and Counting

Jeff W. Huther, Kevin F. Kiernan, Elizabeth Klee and Ethan Rodriguez-Shah

2023-038: Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle

Francesco Bianchi, Giovanni Nicolo and Dongho Song

2023-037: Firm Financial Conditions and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Thiago Revil T. Ferreira, Daniel Ostry and John Rogers

2023-036: Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers

Bennett Schmanski, Chiara Scotti and Clara Vega

2023-035: Measuring Job Loss during the Pandemic Recession in Real Time with Twitter Data

Anbar Aizenman, Connor M. Brennan, Tomaz Cajner, Cynthia Doniger and Jacob Williams

2023-034: More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment

Andrea Ajello, Diego Silva, Travis Adams and Francisco Vazquez-Grande

2023-033r1: Optimal Bidder Selection in Clearing House Default Auctions

Rodney Garratt, David Murphy, Travis Nesmith and Xiaopeng Wu

2023-032r1: Recovery of 1933

Margaret Jacobson, Eric Leeper and Bruce Preston

2023-031: The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered

Hie Joo Ahn and Bart Hobijn

2023-030: Endogenous Bargaining Power and Declining Labor Compensation Share

Juan Cordoba, Anni T. Isojärvi and Haoran Li

2023-029: A Financial Stress Index for a Small Open Economy: The Australian Case

Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, Romina Ruprecht and Xuan Zhou