Finance and Economics Discussion Series

From Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Contact information at EDIRC.
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2025-079: Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter

Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairó and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

2025-078: Pricing Tail Risks: Bank Equity Returns During the 2023 Bank Stress

Shawn Kimble and Matthew P. Seay

2025-077: Central bank preparedness for market-functioning asset purchases as a consideration for long-run balance sheet composition

Rochelle Edge and Dan Li

2025-076: Local Estimation for Option Pricing: Improving Forecasts with Market State Information

Hyung Joo Kim and Dong Hwan Oh

2025-075: When Tails Are Heavy: The Benefits of Variance-Targeted, Non-Gaussian, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of GARCH Models

Todd Prono

2025-074: Monetary Policy, Uncertainty, and Communications

Vaishali Garga, Edward P. Herbst, Alisdair McKay, Giovanni Nicolo and Matthias Paustian

2025-073: Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy

Michael D. Bauer, Travis J. Berge, Giuseppe Fiori, Francesca Loria and Molin Zhong

2025-072: Implications of Inflation Dynamics for Monetary Policy Strategies

Hess T. Chung, Callum J. Jones, Antoine Lepetit and Fernando M. Martin

2025-071: Pandemic and War Inflation: Lessons from the International Experience

Anna Lipinska, Enrique Martínez García and Felipe Schwartzman

2025-070: Inflation since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges

Ina Hajdini, Adam Hale Shapiro, Andrew Lee Smith and Daniel Villar Vallenas

2025-069: Retrospective on the Federal Reserve Board Staff's Inflation Forecast Errors since 2019

Ekaterina V. Peneva, Jeremy B. Rudd and Daniel Villar Vallenas

2025-068: Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employment

Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairó and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

2025-067: Assessing Maximum Employment

Christopher L. Foote, Shigeru Fujita, Amanda M. Michaud and Joshua Montes

2025-066: Reviews of Foreign Central Banks' Monetary Policy Frameworks: Approaches, Issues, and Outcomes

Grey Gordon, Julio L. Ortiz and Benjamin Silk

2025-065: The Origins, Structure, and Results of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 Review of Its Monetary Policy Framework

François Gourio, Benjamin K. Johannsen and J. David López-Salido

2025-064: The Banking Panic in New Mexico in 1924 and the Response of the Federal Reserve

Mark Carlson

2025-063: Policy Rate Uncertainty and Money Market Funds (MMF) Portfolio Allocations

Samin Abdullah and Manjola Tase

2025-062: Recession Shapes of Regional Evolution: Factors of Hysteresis

Hie Joo Ahn and Yunjong Eo

2025-061: Linear and nonlinear econometric models against machine learning models: realized volatility prediction

Rehim Kılıç

2025-060: Mega Firms and New Technological Trajectories in the U.S

Serguey Braguinsky, Joonkyu Choi, Yuheng Ding, Karam Jo and Seula Kim

2025-059: Indirect Credit Supply: How Bank Lending to Private Credit Shapes Monetary Policy Transmission

Sharjil Haque, Young Soo Jang and Jessie Wang

2025-058: Discussion of "Dynamic Causal Effects in a Nonlinear World: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly''

Edward Herbst and Benjamin K. Johannsen

2025-057: Harmonized Population and Labor Force Statistics

John Coglianese, Seth Murray and Christopher Nekarda

2025-056: Stagflationary Stock Returns

Benjamin Knox and Yannick Timmer

2025-055: From Bank Lending Standards to Bank Credit Conditions: An SVAR Approach

Vihar Dalal, Daniel Dias and Pinar Uysal

2025-054: The Theory of Financial Stability Meets Reality

Nina Boyarchenko, Kinda Hachem and Anya V. Kleymenova

2025-053: Generative AI at the Crossroads: Light Bulb, Dynamo, or Microscope?

Martin Neil Baily, David Byrne, Aidan T. Kane and Paul E. Soto

2025-052: Fed Repo Operations and Dealer Intermediation

Mark Carlson, Zack Saravay and Mary Tian

2025-051: A Distance-based Algorithm for Defining Antitrust Markets

Charles Taragin and Marco Taylhardat

2025-050: Lost in Aggregation: Geographic Mismeasurement of Income and Spending

Jack Chylak, Leo Feler and Sinem Hacioglu Hoke

2025-049: Trading Costs v. Indicative Liquidity in the Off-the-Run Treasury Market

Oleg Sokolinskiy

2025-048: Gauging the Sentiment of Federal Open Market Committee Communications through the Eyes of the Financial Press

Shantanu Banerjee, Paul Cordova, Michiel De Pooter and Olesya Grishchenko

2025-047: Soft Landing or Stagflation? A Framework for Estimating the Probabilities of Macro Scenarios

Eric Engstrom

2025-046: The Dollar Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission

Ralf R. Meisenzahl, Friederike Niepmann and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

2025-045: Of House and Home-Related Goods: The Home Purchase Channel of Expenditure

Giovanni Favara, James Graham and Geng Li

2025-044: Total Recall? Evaluating the Macroeconomic Knowledge of Large Language Models

Leland Crane, Akhil Karra and Paul E. Soto

2025-043: Black Swans and Financial Stability: A Framework for Building Resilience

Daniel Barth and Stacey L. Schreft

2025-042: Changing Jobs to Fight Inflation: Labor Market Reactions to Inflationary Shocks

Gorkem Bostanci, Omer Koru and Sergio Villalvazo

2025-041: How Stable are Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? Evidence from the Euro-Area Financial Markets

Olesya Grishchenko, Franck Moraux and Olga Pakulyak

2025-040: Place-Based Labor Market Inequality

Isabella Agnes, Jessica Liu, Erin Troland and Douglas Webber

2025-039: Suitability of a County-Level Income Definition for Analysis of Lower-Income Communities

Isabella Agnes, Ellie Dries, Jessica Liu, Zofsha Merchant, Fatimah Shaalan, Michelle Tran, Anna Tranfaglia, Erin Troland and Douglas Webber

2025-038: Market Liquidity in Treasury Futures Market During March 2020

Eleni Gousgounis, Scott Mixon, Tugkan Tuzun and Clara Vega

2025-037: A Look Back at "Look Through"

Edward Nelson

2025-036: Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk

Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani and Mike West

2025-035: Collateral Reuse and Financial Stability

Jin-Wook Chang and Grace Chuan

2025-034: Risk-averse Dealers in a Risk-free Market - The Role of Trading Desk Risk Limits

Dan Li, Lubomir Petrasek and Mary Tian

2025-033: Refining the Definition of the Unbanked

Elena Falcettoni and Vegard Nygaard

2025-032: No News is Bad News: Monitoring, Risk, and Stale Financial Performance in Commercial Real Estate

Samuel K. Hughes and Joseph B. Nichols

2025-031: Agglomeration and sorting in U.S. manufacturing

Andrea Stella

2025-030: QE, Bank Liquidity Risk Management, and Non-Bank Funding: Evidence from U.S. Administrative Data

Matthew Darst, Sotirios Kokas, Alexandros Kontonikas, José-Luis Peydró and Alexandros Vardoulakis

2025-029: Effect of the GSIB surcharge on the systemic risk posed by the activities of GSIBs

Marco Migueis and Sydney Peirce

2025-028: Household Debt, the Labor Share, and Earnings Inequality

Mark Robinson, Pedro Silos and Diego Vilán

2025-027: Monetary Policy Strategy and the Anchoring of Long-Run Inflation Expectations

Michael Kiley

2025-026: Energy Consumption and Inequality in the U.S.: Who are the Energy Burdened?

Octavio M. Aguilar and Cristina Fuentes-Albero

2025-025: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting from the 1990s to 2020s: Developments and New Challenges

Michael Kiley and Frederic S. Mishkin

2025-024: Post-Pandemic Price Flexibility in the U.S.: Evidence and Implications for Price Setting Models

Hugh Montag and Daniel Villar Vallenas

2025-023r1: From Friedman to Taylor: The Revival of Monetary Policy Rules in the 1990s

Edward Nelson

2025-022: How Markets Process Macro News: The Importance of Investor Attention

T. Niklas Kroner

2025-021: Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not

Edmund Crawley

2025-020: A Model of Charles Ponzi

Gadi Barlevy and Inês Xavier

2025-019: Beyond the Streetlight: Economic Measurement in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve

Tomaz Cajner, Carol Corrado and Arthur B. Kennickell

2025-018: Challenging Demographic Representativeness at State Borders: Implications for Policy Research

Benjamin S. Kay and Albina Khatiwoda

2025-017: CardSim: A Bayesian Simulator for Payment Card Fraud Detection Research

Jeffrey Allen

2025-016: Portfolio Margining Using PCA Latent Factors

Shengwu Du and Travis Nesmith

2025-015: Discount window borrowing and the role of reserves and interest rates

Mark Carlson and Mary-Frances Styczynski

2025-014: The Relationship between Market Depth and Liquidity Fragility in the Treasury Market

Andrew Meldrum and Oleg Sokolinskiy

2025-013: Rewiring repo

Jin-Wook Chang, Elizabeth Klee and Vladimir Yankov

2025-012: Heraclius: A Byzantine Fault Tolerant Database System with Potential for Modern Payments Systems

Jeremy Brotherton, Tarakaram Gollamudi, Jeremy Kassis, James Lovejoy, Narayanan Pillai and Eric C. Thompson

2025-011: Research in Commotion: Measuring AI Research and Development through Conference Call Transcripts

Paul E. Soto

2025-010: Shedding Light on Survey Accuracy—A Comparison between SHED and Census Bureau Survey Results

Kabir Dasgupta, Fatimah Shaalan and Mike Zabek

2025-009: Regulating Bank Portfolio Choice Under Asymmetric Information

Christopher Anderson

2025-008: The effect of ending the pandemic-related mandate of continuous Medicaid coverage on health insurance coverage

Kabir Dasgupta and Keisha T. Solomon

2025-007: Decoding Equity Market Reactions to Macroeconomic News

Michele Modugno and Berardino Palazzo

2025-006: Spatially Mapping Banks' Commercial & Industrial Loan Exposures: Including an Application to Climate-Related Risks

Benjamin Dennis, Gurubala Kotta and Caroline Norris

2025-005: Impact of the Volcker Rule on the Trading Revenue of Largest U.S. Trading Firms During the COVID-19 Crisis Period

Hulusi Inanoglu, David Lynch and Zach Modig

2025-004: Nonparametric Time Varying IV-SVARs: Estimation and Inference

Robin Braun, George Kapetanios and Massimiliano Marcellino

2025-003: Predicting College Closures and Financial Distress

Robert Kelchen, Dubravka Ritter and Douglas Webber

2025-002: “Good” Inflation, “Bad” Inflation: Implications for Risky Asset Prices

Diego Bonelli, Berardino Palazzo and Ram S. Yamarthy

2025-001: Missing Data Substitution for Enhanced Robust Filtering and Forecasting in Linear State-Space Models

Dobrislav Dobrev and Pawel J. Szerszen

2024-100: Trend-Cycle Decomposition and Forecasting Using Bayesian Multivariate Unobserved Components

Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, Charles Knipp and Pawel J. Szerszen

2024-099: Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap

Matteo Barigozzi, Claudio Lissona and Matteo Luciani

2024-098: Hidden Risk

Daniel Barth, Phillip J. Monin, Emil N. Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

2024-097: Life-Cycle Portfolio Choices and Heterogeneous Stock Market Expectations

Mateo Velásquez-Giraldo

2024-096: A Market Interpretation of Treatment Effects

Robert Minton and Casey Mulligan

2024-095r1: Substitution Bias and Fixed-Weight Price Indices in Time-Dependent Pricing Models

Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum and Benjamin K. Johannsen

2024-094: Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy

Ding Dong, Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang and Min Wei

2024-093: Duration of Capital Market Exclusion: An Empirical Investigation

Daniel Dias, Christine Richmond and Grant Westfahl

2024-092: Gender Gaps in the Federal Reserve System

Deepa Datta and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

2024-091: Measuring Inclusion: Gender and Coauthorship at the Federal Reserve Board

Deepa Datta and Robert Vigfusson

2024-090: Revisiting Risky Money

Travis Nesmith

2024-089: Credit Supply and Hedge Fund Performance: Evidence from Prime Broker Surveys

Dan Li, Phillip J. Monin and Lubomir Petrasek

2024-088r1: Locked In: Mobility, Market Tightness, and House Prices

Aditya Aladangady, Jacob Krimmel and Tess C. Scharlemann

2024-087: Unemployment Insurance and Macro-Financial (In)Stability

Yavuz Arslan, Ahmet Degerli, Bulent Guler and Burhanettin Kurusçu

2024-086: Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference of Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models via the EM algorithm

Matteo Barigozzi and Matteo Luciani

2024-085: Inside the Boardroom: Evidence from the Board Structure and Meeting Minutes of Community Banks

Rosalind Bennett, Manju Puri and Paul E. Soto

2024-084: Disagreement About the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

Hie Joo Ahn and Leland Farmer

2024-083: Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship

Toni Ahnert, Sebastian Doerr, Nicola Pierri and Yannick Timmer

2024-082: More Tax, Less Refi? The Mortgage Interest Deduction and Monetary Policy Pass-Through

Tess C. Scharlemann and Eileen van Straelen

2024-081: Nonlinear Effects of Loan-to-Value Constraints

C. Bora Durdu and Sergio Villalvazo

2024-080: Who is Minding the Store? Order Routing and Competition in Retail Trade Execution

Xing Huang, Philippe Jorion, Jeongmin Lee and Christopher Schwarz