Finance and Economics Discussion Series

From Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
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2007-11: Expected stock returns and variance risk premia

Tim Bollerslev and Hao Zhou

2007-10: Alternative methods of unit nonresponse weighting adjustments: an application from the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finances

Lieu N. Hazelwood, Traci L. Mach and John Wolken

2007-09: A cohort-based model of labor force participation

Bruce Fallick and Jonathan Pingle

2007-08: Natural rate measures in an estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy

Rochelle Edge, Michael Kiley and Jean-Philippe Laforte

2007-07: Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI

Jeremy J. Nalewaik

2007-06: A closer look at the sensitivity puzzle: the sensitivity of expected future short rates and term premia to macroeconomic news

Meredith Beechey

2007-05: Rounding and the impact of news: a simple test of market rationality

Meredith Beechey and Jonathan Wright

2007-04: Rational seasonality

Travis Nesmith

2007-03: Linear cointegration of nonlinear time series with an application to interest rate dynamics

Barry Jones and Travis Nesmith

2007-02: Measurement of monetary aggregates across countries

Yueh-Yun C. O'Brien

2007-01: A primer on the macroeconomic implications of population aging

Louise Sheiner, Daniel Sichel and Lawrence Slifman

2006-46: The competitive effects of risk-based bank capital regulation: an example from U.S. mortgage markets

Diana Hancock, Andreas Lehnert, Wayne Passmore and Shane Sherlund

2006-45: A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting

Michael Kiley

2006-44: Shifting trends in semiconductor prices and the pace of technological progress

Ana Aizcorbe, Stephen Oliner and Daniel Sichel

2006-43: Inflation measurement

David E. Lebow and Jeremy B. Rudd

2006-42: An estimate of the inflation risk premium using a three-factor affine term structure model

J. Benson Durham

2006-41: The profitability of small, single-market banks in an era of multimarket banking

Timothy Hannan and Robin A. Prager

2006-40: Acquisition targets and motives in the banking industry

Timothy Hannan and Steven J. Pilloff

2006-39: Incorporating judgement in fan charts

Pär Österholm

2006-38: A model in which outside and inside money are essential

David Mills

2006-37: Social Security's delayed retirement credit and the labor supply of older men

Jonathan Pingle

2006-36: Incompatibility and investment in ATM networks

Ron Borzekowski and Timothy Hannan

2006-35: Realized jumps on financial markets and predicting credit spreads

George Tauchen and Hao Zhou

2006-34: Requirements and prospects for a new time to payoff disclosure for open end credit under Truth in Lending

Thomas A. Durkin

2006-33: The relocation decisions of working couples

Jonathan Pingle

2006-32: What do financial asset prices say about the housing market?

J. Benson Durham

2006-31: Why are plant deaths countercyclical: reallocation timing or fragility?

Andrew Figura

2006-30: GSEs, mortgage rates, and secondary market activities

Andreas Lehnert, Wayne Passmore and Shane Sherlund

2006-29: A trend and variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio in housing markets

Sean D. Campbell, Morris Davis, Joshua H. Gallin and Robert Martin

2006-28: The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present

Refet Gürkaynak, Brian P. Sack and Jonathan Wright

2006-27: Are longer bankruptcies really more costly?

Daniel M. Covitz, Song Han and Beth Anne Wilson

2006-26: Solving linear rational expectations models: a horse race

Gary Anderson

2006-25: The price of residential land in large U.S. cities

Morris Davis and Michael Palumbo

2006-24: Intangible capital and economic growth

Carol Corrado, Charles R. Hulten and Daniel Sichel

2006-23: Explaining cyclical movements in employment: creative destruction or changes in utilization

Andrew Figura

2006-22: Monetary policy implementation without averaging or rate corridors

William C. Whitesell

2006-21: Likelihood ratio tests on cointegrating vectors, disequilibrium adjustment vectors, and their orthogonal complements

Norman J. Morin

2006-20: Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge

Athanasios Orphanides and John Williams

2006-19: A retrospective evaluation of the effects of temporary partial expensing

Darrel Cohen and Jason Cummins

2006-18: 'Captive markets': the impact of kidnappings on corporate investment in Colombia

Rony Pshisva and Gustavo Suarez

2006-17: The choice at the checkout: quantifying demand across payment instruments

Ron Borzekowski and Elizabeth K. Kiser

2006-16: Consumers' use of debit cards: patterns, preferences, and price response

Shaista Ahmed, Ron Borzekowski and Elizabeth K. Kiser

2006-15: Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?

Andrew Ang, Geert Bekaert and Min Wei

2006-14: Executive financial incentives and payout policy: firm responses to the 2003 dividend tax cut

Jeffrey Brown, J. Nellie Liang and Scott Weisbenner

2006-13: Currents and undercurrents: changes in the distribution of wealth, 1989-2004

Arthur B. Kennickell

2006-12: A fully-rational liquidity-based theory of IPO underpricing and underperformance

Matthew Pritsker

2006-11: Credit market competition and capital regulation

Franklin Allen, Elena Carletti and Robert Marquez

2006-10: Forecasting professional forecasters

Eric Ghysels and Jonathan Wright

2006-09: Incentives and prices for motor vehicles: what has been happening in recent years?

Carol Corrado, Wendy E. Dunn and Maria Ward Otoo

2006-08: Real-time model uncertainty in the United States: the Fed from 1996-2003

Brian Ironside and Robert Tetlow

2006-07: The yield curve and predicting recessions

Jonathan Wright

2006-06: Taxation with representation: intergovernmental grants in a plebiscite democracy

Byron F. Lutz

2006-05: The road to price stability

Athanasios Orphanides

2006-04: Outstanding outsourcers: a firm- and plant-level analysis of production sharing

Christopher J. Kurz

2006-03: Do homeowners know their house values and mortgage terms?

Brian Bucks and Karen Pence

2006-02: Paper or plastic? the effect of time on the use of check and debit cards at grocery stores

Elizabeth Klee

2006-01: Families' use of payment instruments during a decade of change in the U.S. payment system

Elizabeth Klee

2005-70: Expectations formation and the effectiveness of strategies for limiting the consequences of the zero bound on interest rates

David L. Reifschneider and John Roberts

2005-69: Using structural shocks to identify models of investment

John Roberts

2005-68: Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: do survey respondents know something we don't know?

Maria G. Perozek

2005-67: Escaping the Samaritan's Dilemma: implications of a dynamic model of altruistic intergenerational transfers

Maria G. Perozek

2005-66: Modelling inflation dynamics: a critical review of recent research

Jeremy B. Rudd and Karl Whelan

2005-65: Retail deposit fees and multimarket banking

Timothy Hannan

2005-64: Post Brown vs. the Board of Education: the effects of the end of court-ordered desegregation

Byron F. Lutz

2005-63: Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms

Benjamin Y. Zhang, Hao Zhou and Haibin Zhu

2005-62: An inflation goal with multiple reference measures

William C. Whitesell

2005-61: How did the 2003 dividend tax cut affect stock prices?

Gene Amromin, Paul Harrison and Steven Sharpe

2005-60: The sustainability of health spending growth

Glenn Follette and Louise Sheiner

2005-59: A no-arbitrage analysis of economic determinants of the credit spread term structure

Liuren Wu and Frank X. Zhang

2005-58: Robustifying learnability

Robert Tetlow and Peter von zur Muehlen

2005-57: How did the 2003 dividend tax cut affect stock prices and corporate payout policy?

Gene Amromin, Paul Harrison, J. Nellie Liang and Steven Sharpe

2005-56: Competition and price discrimination in the market for mailing lists

Ron Borzekowski, Charles Taragin and Raphael Thomadsen

2005-55: Alternative central bank credit policies for liquidity provision in a model of payments

David Mills

2005-54: Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?

Karen E. Dynan, Douglas Elmendorf and Daniel Sichel

2005-53: Jump-diffusion processes and affine term structure models: additional closed-form approximate solutions, distributional assumptions for jumps, and parameter estimates

J. Benson Durham

2005-52: Solving stochastic money-in-the-utility-function models

Travis Nesmith

2005-51: Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge

Athanasios Orphanides and John Williams

2005-50: Measuring counterparty credit exposure to a margined counterparty

Michael S. Gibson

2005-49: Job creation and housing construction: constraints on metropolitan area employment growth

Raven E. Saks

2005-48: Term structure estimation with survey data on interest rate forecasts

Don H. Kim and Athanasios Orphanides

2005-47: Stock market volatility and the Great Moderation

Sean D. Campbell

2005-46: ATM surcharge bans and bank market structure: the case of Iowa and its neighbors

Timothy Hannan

2005-45: The effects of welfare reform and related policies on single mothers' welfare use and employment

W. Looney

2005-44: The effect of anticipated tax changes on intertemporal labor supply and the realization of taxable income

W. Looney and Monica Singhal

2005-43: The effects of mortgage prepayments on M2

Yueh-Yun C. O'Brien

2005-42: Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases

Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin and David H. Small

2005-41: Estimates of home mortgage originations, repayments, and debt on one-to-four-family residences

Alan Greenspan and James E. Kennedy

2005-40: Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices

Geert Bekaert, Eric Engstrom and Yuhang Xing

2005-39: Do nonfinancial firms use interest rate derivatives to hedge?

Daniel M. Covitz and Steven Sharpe

2005-38: How biased are measures of cyclical movements in productivity and hours?

Stephanie Aaronson and Andrew Figura

2005-37: A computationally efficient characterization of pure strategy Nash equilibria in large entry games

Andrew M. Cohen

2005-36: Large investors: implications for equilibrium asset, returns, shock absorption, and liquidity

Matthew Pritsker

2005-35: Liquidity, default, taxes and yields on municipal bonds

Junbo Wang, Chunchi Wu and Frank X. Zhang

2005-34: Optimal policy projections

Lars Svensson and Robert Tetlow

2005-33: An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates

Don H. Kim and Jonathan Wright

2005-32: The household spending response to the 2003 tax cut: evidence from survey data

Julia Lynn Coronado, Joseph Lupton and Louise Sheiner

2005-31: Has output become more predictable? changes in Greenbook forecast accuracy

Peter Tulip

2005-30: Why and when do spot prices of crude oil revert to futures price levels?

Mark W. French

2005-29: Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis

Refet Gürkaynak

2005-28: Gestation lags and the relationship between investment and Q in regressions

Jonathan N. Millar