Has output become more predictable? changes in Greenbook forecast accuracy

Peter Tulip

No 2005-31, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Several researchers have recently documented a large reduction in output volatility. In contrast, this paper examines whether output has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find the evidence is somewhat mixed. Output seems to have become more predictable at short horizons, but not necessarily at longer horizons. The reduction in unpredictability is much less than the reduction in volatility. Associated with this, recent forecasts had little predictive power.

Keywords: Economic; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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